长江流域资源与环境 >> 2010, Vol. 19 >> Issue (Z2): 66-.

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

荆州主要界限温度初终日、持续天数和积温的变化

马德栗, 陈正洪   

  1. (武汉区域气候中心,湖北 武汉430074)
  • 出版日期:2010-12-31

ON THE CHANGE OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY TEMPERATURE (≥10℃&|≥20℃) IN JINGZHOU CITY

MA Deli|CHEN Zhenghong   

  1. (Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074, China)
  • Online:2010-12-31

摘要:

根据荆州1954~2008年逐日气温资料,运用线性倾向估计、MK突变检验等方法计算分析了≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的时间变化特征。结果表明:(1)55 a来年平均气温呈增加趋势,线性增温率为0.26℃/10 a,突变点为1986年,1988年后气温显著增加。(2)≥10℃和≥20℃初始日期呈显著提前趋势,终止日期呈延迟趋势,持续天数显著增加。(3)≥10℃积温呈显著增加趋势,增温率为85.9℃/10 a,突变点为1990年,1994年后积温显著增加;≥20℃积温呈显著增加趋势,增温率为75.6℃/10 a,突变点为1995年,2004年后积温显著增加。(4)≥10℃、≥20℃初始日期提前程度大于终止日期延迟程度,≥10℃积温增加幅度大于≥20℃积温增加幅度,≥10℃积温突变点和显著增加点出现年份均早于≥20℃积温。〖

Abstract:

Based on the daily temperature of Jingzhou from 1954 to 2008,authors analyzed the characteristics of accumulated temperature change of ≥10℃ and ≥20℃ by using the methods of linear trend estimates and MK test.The results indicated that,the annual temperature showed an increasing trend with the linear warming rate of 0.26℃/10 a during the past 55 years.In 1986 the annual temperature had abrupt change,especially after 1989,the warming trend increased significantly.The trend of initial date of ≥10℃ and ≥20℃ appeared ahead,while the terminal date was delayed,so the sustained days of ≥10℃ and ≥20℃ increased significantly.During the past 55 years,≥10℃ accumulated temperature showed an increasing trend significantly with the warming rate of 859℃/10 a.Mutation point of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature was appeared in 1990,and after 1994,≥10℃ accumulated temperature increased sharply.At the same time,the ≥20℃ accumulated temperature also appeared an increased trend with the warming rate of 756℃/10 a.The ≥20℃ accumulated temperature had abrupt change in 1995,especially after 2004,the warming trend increased sharply.In the past 55 years, the ahead of the initial date of ≥10℃ and ≥20℃ was greater than the delay of the terminal date,and the same situation occurred in  heat resources.The mutation point and the point of the significant increased year of ≥20℃ accumulated temperature appeared latter than that of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature.〖

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