耕地资源变化的空间计量及其驱动力分析——以江苏省为例

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2011, Vol. 20 >> Issue (05): 628-.

耕地资源变化的空间计量及其驱动力分析——以江苏省为例

文继群|濮励杰|张润森

（1.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京 210093|2.国土资源部土地利用重点实验室,北京 100029）

出版日期:2011-05-20

A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON DIFFERENTIAL CHANGES AND DRIVING FORCES OF ARABLE LAND——A CASE STUDY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

WEN Jiqun1, PU Lijie1,2, ZHANG Runsen1

(1. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China|2. Key Laboratory of Land Use, Ministry of Land and Resource, Beijing 100035,China)

Online:2011-05-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用1998~2008年江苏省13个地级市的耕地数据，分析了近10 a来耕地数量变化的基本过程及空间差异。然后运用Moran I指数验证了耕地资源分布空间相关性的存在，并利用空间计量模型研究了江苏省耕地数量变化的驱动机制。结果表明：（1）1998~2008年，江苏省耕地面积净减少2969×104 hm2，平均每年减少270×104 hm2。耕地数量变化存在明显的空间差异，无锡、苏州、常州、南京和镇江5个地区耕地资源减少最为严重；（2）全省耕地资源空间分布存在明显的空间相关性，1998~2008年，耕地面积Moran I值由0400 3增加至0452 4，呈逐步增强的趋势；（3）人口、经济增长和粮经作物比是江苏省耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子，其弹性系数分别为-0803、-0070、0069；（4）相邻地区各因素的空间扩散效应对耕地数量变化存在显著的影响，其弹性系数为0779，因此，未来在制定耕地保护政策，应考虑区域耕地资源分布的空间相关性，推进跨区域耕地保护机制的形成，建立一体化的区域耕地保护政策。

Abstract:

Based on the data of arable land in 13 municipal cities in Jiangsu Province from 1998 to 2008,this paper analyzed the change process of arable land and spatial difference nearly 10 years,test the spatial autocorrelation of arable land by the Moran I index,and studied the driving mechanism in the change of arable land by adopting spatial econometric model.From 1998 to 2008,the area of arable land decreased 2969 × 104 hm2 with yearly decrease of 270 × 104 hm2.There was an obvious spatial difference in the change of arable land.The most serious regions of the reduction of arable land included Wuxi,Suzhou,Changzhou,Nanjing and Zhenjiang city.There existed an obvious spatial correlation of the distribution of arable land in Jiangsu Province.Its value of Moran I increased from 04003 to 04524 from 1998 to 2008，and this correlation was growing stronger.The population,economic growth and the ratio of grain and economic crops were the main driving factors and their elastic coefficients were -0803, -0070 and 0069,respectively.There was an obvious significant spatial diffusion effect in the change of arable land in various factors in adjacent areas,and the elastic coefficient was 0779.Therefore,we should take the spatial correlation into consideration in the future to promote the formation of transregional arable land protection mechanism,and establish an integrative regional protection policy

文继群, 濮励杰, 张润森. 耕地资源变化的空间计量及其驱动力分析——以江苏省为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2011, 20(05): 628-.

WEN Ji-Qun, PU Li-Jie, ZHANG Run-Sen. A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON DIFFERENTIAL CHANGES AND DRIVING FORCES OF ARABLE LAND——A CASE STUDY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2011, 20(05): 628-.

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