长江流域资源与环境 >> 2011, Vol. 20 >> Issue (06): 723-.

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

江西柘林水库集水区近50年气候干湿状况研究

王怀清,彭静,赵志强,孔萍   

  1. (1.彭泽县气象局|江西 彭泽 332700;2.江西省气候中心|江西 南昌 330046;3.北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院|北京 100875
  • 出版日期:2011-06-20

DRYNESS/WETNESS STATUS RESEARCH IN UPPER REACHES OF ZHELIN RESERVOIR IN LAST 50 YEARS

WANG Huaiqing1,2, PENG Jing3, ZHAO zhiqiang1, KONG Ping2   

  1. (1.Pengze County Meteorological Bureau|Pengze 332700|China;2.Climate Center of Jiangxi Province|Nanchang 330046|China;3.College of Global Change and Earth System,Beijing Normal University|Beijing 100875|China
  • Online:2011-06-20

摘要:

柘林水库的面积和库容较大,但集水区面积相对较小,水资源亏缺是其主要制约因子,研究近50 a来水库集水区的气候干湿状况和变化趋势,对于水库的运行调度、效益发挥以及制定科学的投资计划具有很好的参考价值。基于江西柘林水库集水区内3个常规气象站1958~2007年的逐日降水、气温等要素观测资料,计算不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI指数),以衡量集水区干湿情况;用FAO PenmanMonteith 方法计算参考蒸散量;以年降水量与年参考蒸散量的差值近似代表最大径流深度。采用线性趋势拟合、滑动平均等分析方法,对水库集水区的旱涝、参考蒸散量、最大径流深度等的时间分布状况、季节变化、变化趋势等进行了分析。研究结果表明:(1)柘林水库集水区1998年以来年降水量呈明显下降趋势,而年参考蒸散量呈上升趋势,导致年最大径流深度下降明显,水库水资源不足;(2)近50 a柘林水库集水区的降水集中度呈增加趋势,强降水对总降水量的贡献增大,旱涝发生风险均增加;(3)近50 a柘林水库集水区旱涝互现、旱重于涝

Abstract:

Zhelin reservoir has large area and storage,but its catchment area is relatively small.Main constraining factor is deficient water resource.Research of the wet and dry climate conditions and its trend of upstream area in the last 50 years is very important to make effectiveness and scientific investment plan for Zhelin reservoir.Different time scales of standardized precipitation index(SPI index)were calculated by using daytoday precipitation,temperature and other observations data of three conventional meteorological stations in upstream area of Zhelin reservoir from 1958 to 2007.Using SPI index,dry and wet conditions of river basin were studied.Based on FAO PenmanMonteith method,evapotranspiration was calculated.Margin of annual precipitation and evapotranspiration was on behalf of approximate maximum depth of runoff.Linear trend fitting,moving average,and other analytical methods were used to analyze droughts and floods,evapotranspiration,maximum depth of runoff time distribution,seasonal changes,trends and so on.The results show that on the upstream area of the Zhelin reservoir basin,annual precipitation had a significant downward trend,but evapotranspiration had a upward trend since 1998,which led to maximum depth of runoff obvious declining and reservoir water resource being shortage.In the last 50 years,the precipitation concentration showed an upward trend in the river basin.The contribution to the total precipitation of heavy rainfall was increased.The risk of droughts and floods was increased.Droughts and floods appeared alternately in the last 50 years.The frequence of droughts was higher than floods.

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