Abstract:

Based on land use historical data of three periods extracted from highresolution aerial photos,IKONOS and Quickbird images,we applied CLUES model to forecast the land use pattern of 2009 based on the 1991 and 2001 land use data,and compared the simulated results with the real land use of 2009.On class level,we chose ROC curve and deviation degree index to evaluate the accuracy of logistic regression and CLUES model,respectively.On landscape level,we selected landscape metrics and Kappa index series to comprehensively assess the accuracy of CLUES model with respect to integrated predictive ability,landscape pattern,quantity and spatial location.The results showed that the CLUES model had satisfactory precision for each land use type,and showed higher fitting precision of logistic regression of each land use type with the spatial resolution increasing.With simulating time decreasing,the precision of CLUES model for landscape patterns enhanced.The predicted precision of quantity was obviously better than spatial location.As a whole,the comprehensive simulation effect of CLUES model was favorable,but the predicted precision of spatial location and landscape pattern should be improved