Abstract:

The sustainable development of agricultural production and food security is based on the sustainable use of natural resources and ecological environment systemThe demand for food increases year by year with the population growth and the improvement of living standard of the people in China in the past decades It not only has made the contradicton between huge population and relatively limited plowland resources， but also has brought challenges to the sustainable development and utilization of agricultural resources and ecological system in China Based on literature study，firstly，we confirmed the quantity of food demand at the population peak in China Secondly，we established the linear regression model between food output and the input factors by taking the use of annual data of food output and the quantity of the input factors （such as land，fertilizer and so on） between 1991 and 2010 Thirdly，we figured out the quantity of the input factors，and converted the inputs into the quantity of cultivated land area and forestry area Then，we calculated the ecological footprint of the food production activity by using of econometric model in the case of peak population and under the background of food security in China We assessed the sustainable level of the activity based on the theory of ecological footprint index Unfortunately，the analysis result showed that the ecological footprint per capita was 140 hm2 and much higher than the biocapacity per capita （087 hm2）in China And the ecological footprint index per capita in [JP2]China was negative value （-609%） It means that the agricultural ecological system was in unsustainable state [JP]Therefore，our food security also could not be guaranteed sustainable by selfsufficiency In order to remit the contradiction of the quantity between food and plowland area and the contradiction between food output and agricultural ecological sustainable development，and to maintain the goals of food security and ecological sustainable development in China， we need to change the agricultural production mode from mainly boosted by the extensive input of production factors to more ecofriendly mode，such as ecological agriculture Besides we should change the way for guaranteeing food security to relieve the pressure on resources and ecological environment by reducing food selfsufficiency rate In practice，one side，we could import more food from international food market since China owns huge foreign exchange reserve On the other side，we could increase the quantity of global food production by extending cooperation with the countries rich in land resources such as South American countries and African countries The agricultural cooperation between China and these countries could benefit both sides by improving the utilization efficiency of land resources since China has more advanced agricultural technology and knowledge This study has important reference value for our government to select the right way of agricultural development and to select a food security policy which is more in line with Chinas national condition.