９６１~２０１０年中国大陆地面气候要素变化特征分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201404015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961~2010年全国大陆地面468个气象台站的气温、降水和日照时数等资料，采用Jones等提出的计算区域平均气候时间序列的方法对全国数据进行加权平均处理，采用线性趋势、反距离加权插值、Morlet小波分析、MannKendall法，分析了我国大陆地面近50 a来各气候要素的变化特征。研究表明：年平均气温、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温均呈显著上升趋势，年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数均呈显著减少趋势；年平均气温、年平均降水、年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年平均温度差、年极端温度差、年平均日照时数分别存在14、26、14、14、25、16、26、25和25 a左右的变化主周期；在005的置信度水平下，年平均最高气温、年极端最低气温、年极端最高气温、年极端温度差、年平均降水和年平均日照时数均发生突变，其分别在1996、1981、1997、1975、1983和1982年发生突变，其余要素均未发生突变。分析还发现，各气候要素的变化主周期分别存在一定的相似性，突变时间也存在一定联系

Abstract:

Global climate change affects not only the environment human live in, but also affects the development of word economic and social progress.The IPCC published its fourth report (AR4) in 2007 and said that in the last 100 years the surface temperature of the global had increased by 056-092 equally.China is one of the countries where the meteorological disasters are the most severe in the world.All kinds of extreme climate events have made great loss to our country.With the background of global climate warming,more and more extreme climate events have happened.It is necessary to monitor the climate in our country,pay more attention to the anomaly characteristics and analysis of all kinds of weather events.Relevant works may provide some references for future disaster prevention and mitigation measures,and also for a comprehensive assessment of China climate change.Based on 468 meteorological stations data,the variation characteristics of climatic factors in China during 1961-2010 were analyzed,using linear regression,Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation method,Morlet wavelet and MannKendall methods.The results show that temperature including annual mean temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature,annual extreme minimum temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature displayed a significant increasing trend.The difference between annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures (annual extreme temperatures) as well as sunshine hours exhibited a significantly decreasing trend.Significant cycles in the range of 14 a-6 a were found to exist for annual mean temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature,while cycles in the range of 25 a-26 a were found to exist for average annual precipitation,annual extreme minimum temperature,mean annual temperature difference,annual extreme temperature difference and average annual sunshine hours.Significant climatic changes were found in several years such as 1996,1981,1997,1975,1983 and 1982.Similar cycles and abrupt years suggest possible linkages between those climate factors

周　丹,张　勃,李小亚,季定民,杨尚武. ９６１~２０１０年中国大陆地面气候要素变化特征分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2014, 23(04): 549-.

ZHOU Dan, ZHANG Bo, LI Xiaoya, JI Dingmin,YANG Shangwu. ANALYSIS OF VARIATIONS OF CLIMATIC ELEMENTS IN SURFACE GROUND OF MAILAND CHINA DURING 1961-2010[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2014, 23(04): 549-.

参考文献

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed

推荐阅读 10

[1]	陈勇,陈国阶,杨定国. 岷江上游聚落分布规律及其生态特征——以四川理县为例[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(1): 72 -77 .
[2]	刘健,陈星,彭恩志,周学东. 气候变化对江苏省城市系统用电量变化趋势的影响[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(5): 546 -550 .
[3]	陈正洪,万素琴,毛以伟. 三峡库区复杂地形下的降雨时空分布特点分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2005, 14(5): 623 -627 .
[4]	张磊,董立新,吴炳方,周万村. 三峡水库建设前后库区10年土地覆盖变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2007, 16(1): 107 -112 .
[5]	禹娜,陈立侨,赵泉鸿. 太湖介形类动物丰度与生物量[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(4): 546 .
[6]	孔令强. 水电工程农村移民入股安置模式初探[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(2): 185 .
[7]	于国荣,夏自强,叶辉,王桂华,吴瑶. 大坝下游河段的河流生态径流调控研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2008, 17(4): 606 .
[8]	于苏俊,张继,夏永秋. 基于遗传算法的可持续土地利用动态规划[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(2): 180 -184 .
[9]	张静,汪诚信,白呼群,苏崇鳌,鄂启顺,武桂珍,黄玉英. 三峡库区虫媒和自然疫源性疾病分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2004, 13(2): 145 -148 .
[10]	谢辉,张雷,姜巍,程晓凌. 21世纪初华中地区发展的资源环境基础[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(1): 1 -5 .