长江流域资源与环境 >> 2018, Vol. 27 >> Issue (04): 695-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201804001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

长江经济带碳减排潜力与低碳发展策略

黄国华 , 刘传江 , 徐正华   

  1. (1.武汉大学经济发展研究中心,湖北 武汉 430072;2.东华理工大学经济与管理学院,江西 南昌  3300133.武汉大学人口·资源·环境经济研究中心,湖北 武汉 430072)
  • 出版日期:2018-04-21

Carbon Emission Reduction Potential and LowCarbon Development Strategy in Yangtez River Economic Belt

HUANG Guohua1,2, LIU Chuanjiang1,3, XU Zhenghua2   

  1. (1Wuhan University Center for Economic Development Research, Wuhan 430072, China;2.Economics and Management School of East China Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330013,China;3.Center for Population Resources Environment and Economics Research of Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China
  • Online:2018-04-21

摘要: 为长江经济带低碳发展需要,借助长江经济带11省市2005~2014年间相关数据,对长江经济带及区域间的碳排放、能源强度、碳吸收进行测算,并探讨长江经济带未来低碳发展策略,分析 “高碳情景”与“低碳情景”下2030年各区域的碳减排潜力。研究发现:长江经济带碳排放聚集度较高且整体增速趋缓。东部区域碳排放均值最大,西部区域最小。中部区域碳排放增速最快,东部区域最慢。西部区域能源强度最高,东部区域最低;但中部区域能源强度降幅最大,东部区域降幅最小。西部区域碳汇能力最强,东部区域最弱。基于以上发现,从碳减排责任划分、低碳消费、清洁能源替代、高耗能产业优化以及区域生态质量提升等方面提出相关策略,力图实现碳源面的直接碳减排与碳汇面的相对碳减排。最后,经预测可知:2030年,长江经济带“低碳情景”比“高碳情景”减少碳排放约12亿t,中部区域将成为碳排放主要来源地

Abstract: This paper analyzed carbon emission, energy intensity and carbon uptake in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) based on related data of 11 provinces and cities in the YREB from 2005 to 2014. The regional reduction potentials of carbon emission were measured under the “ighCarbon Scenario”and “owCarbon Scenario”in 2030 to explore the low carbon development modes in the YREB. The results showed that spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions in the YREB was significant and the growth rate of carbon emissions was slowing. The eastern region had the largest average carbon emissions, while the smallest average value emerged in the western region. The fastest and slowest growth of carbon emissions emerged in the central region and the eastern region, respectively. The energy intensity of the western region was the highest, while the eastern region has the lowest energy intensity. However, the central region had the largest decline in energy intensity, whereas the eastern region had the smallest decline. The western region had the strongest carbon sink capacity, while the weakest value appeared in the eastern region. Based on the aforementioned findings, relevant strategies should be put forward from the aspects of carbon emission reduction responsibility, low carbon consumption, clean energy substitution, high energy consumption industry optimization and regional ecological quality improvement to achieve direct carbon reduction of carbon source and relative carbon emission reduction of carbon sinks. It was predicted that carbon emissions under the “LowCarbon Scenario” would reduce about 12 billion tons compared to the “HighCarbon Scenario”in the YREB in 2030, and the central region would become the main source of carbon emissions

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