长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (10): 2301-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202510013

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

近21年江苏省PM2.5时空分布及驱动力分析

郭广雪,邹翔*,张雨婷   

  1. (江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏 徐州 221116)
  • 出版日期:2025-10-20 发布日期:2025-10-23

Analysis on Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of PM2.5 in Jiangsu Province in the Past 21 Years

GUO Guang-xue, ZOU Xiang, ZHANG Yu-ting   

  1. (School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China)
  • Online:2025-10-20 Published:2025-10-23

摘要: 研究江苏省大气PM2.5时空分布及驱动力对其制定防治政策具有重要意义。利用多种数据统计方法,地理探测器和多尺度地理加权回归模型,探究江苏省PM2.5时空分布特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)2000~2021年江苏省大气PM2.5浓度年均值在33.93~70.65 μg·m-3之间,其变化趋势表现为2000~2013年持续上升,2013年后显著下降,整体呈波动下降特征;PM2.5浓度在季节上冬季最高,春秋季次之,夏季最低;多年平均PM2.5浓度在空间上呈现西北部高,东南部低的分布格局。(2)因子探测结果表明湿度和风速是影响PM2.5空间分异最主要驱动因子。而各驱动因子在交互作用后对PM2.5空间分异解释力均大于单一因子的解释力,表明PM2.5空间分异是多种驱动因素协同作用的结果。(3)PM2.5与各驱动因子的作用尺度和作用程度具有显著差异。日照时数的作用尺度最小,空间异质性最大。高程和年均相对湿度的作用尺度最大,对PM2.5浓度的影响在研究区域范围内基本一致。江苏省PM2.5浓度富集与高程和年均温度呈正相关,与年均相对湿度、年均风速、年均降水量和日照时数总体呈负相关。

Abstract: The study of the spatial-temporal distribution and driving factors of atmospheric PM2.5 in Jiangsu Province is of great significance for formulating effective prevention and control policies. Using various statistical methods, geographical detector, and a multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model, this research explored the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of PM2.5 in Jiangsu Province and its influencing factors. The results indicated that: (1) The annual average PM2.5 concentration ranged from 33.93 to 70.65 μg·m-3, showing an upward trend in 2000, a decline after 2013, and an overall downward trend. Seasonally, PM2.5 concentrations were highest in winter, followed by spring and autumn, and lowest in summer. The multi-year average spatial distribution of PM2.5 showed higher concentrations in the northwest and lower concentrations in the southeast. (2) Factor detection results indicated that humidity and wind speed were the primary driving factors influencing the spatial differentiation of PM2.5. Furthermore, the explanatory power of all driving factors was greater than that of any single factor, suggesting that spatial differentiation of PM2.5 was the result of a combination of multiple driving factors. (3) The scale and intensity of the effects of each driving factor on PM2.5 showed significant differences. Sunshine duration had the smallest effect scale and the greatest spatial heterogeneity. Elevation and annual average relative humidity had the largest effect scales, showing a relatively consistent influence on PM2.5 concentration across the study area. PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with elevation and annual average temperature, and generally negatively correlated with annual average relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and sunshine duration.

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