长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (6): 1149-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202506001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

长江经济带经济高质量发展:测度、时空演变与障碍因子诊断

周兵,李玉凤*   

  1. (重庆工商大学成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院,重庆 400067)
  • 出版日期:2025-06-20 发布日期:2025-06-27

High-quality Economic Development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Assessment, Spatiotemporal Evolution, and Identification of Impediments

ZHOU Bin, LI Yu-feng   

  1. (Institute of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Development,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)
  • Online:2025-06-20 Published:2025-06-27

摘要: 测度长江经济带经济高质量发展水平,考察其分布动态、转移特征、地区差异、空间集聚以及障碍因子,对打造区域经济高质量发展样本,建设中国经济高质量发展的先行示范区具有重要的现实意义。基于2011~2020年长江经济带102个城市基础数据,构建经济高质量发展评价指标体系,综合运用纵横向拉开档次法、定基功效系数法及线性加权法对经济高质量发展水平进行测度。采用核密度估计、马尔科夫链估计、Dagum基尼系数、ArcGIS绘图、空间莫兰指数、局部莫兰散点图以及障碍因子诊断等方法进行系统分析。研究发现:(1)长江经济带经济高质量发展水平在研究期内稳步提升,各省市经济高质量发展水平呈现显著差异;区域发展差距经历了扩大再缩小的过程,多级分化的梯度发展格局逐渐转化为两极分化格局,均衡发展态势逐渐显现;(2)各城市维持当前发展水平的概率较大,高水平城市固化现象得以证实;(3)区域差距主要来源于区域之间,呈逐年缩小的态势;(4)高质量发展呈高高集聚和低低集聚的空间特征,且高水平城市辐射效应显著;(5)人均利用外资金额、居民生活水平、市场化程度、产业结构合理化程度等是影响长江经济带经济高质量发展的主要因素;失业率、人均养老保险参保率和能源效率是部分省市经济高质量发展水平提升的重要阻力因素。


Abstract: The measurement of high-quality economic development level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, along with an examination of its distribution dynamics, transfer characteristics, regional disparities, spatial agglomeration and obstacle factors, holds significant practical implications for establishing exemplary models of regional economic development and constructing a pilot demonstration zone for high-quality economic development in China. Based on fundamental data from 102 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt spanning from 2011 to 2020, this study constructs an evaluation index system for high-quality economic development. The level of high-quality economic development is measured through a comprehensive utilization of vertical and horizontal scatter degree method, fixed base efficiency coefficient method, and linear weighting method. Building upon this foundation, systematic analysis is conducted employing kernel density estimation, Markov chain estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, Arcgis mapping technique, spatial Moran’s index, Moran scatter plot as well as obstacle factor diagnosis. The findings are as follows: (1) The level of high-quality economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has steadily improved during the study period, with significant variations observed among provinces and cities. The regional development gap underwent an initial expansion followed by a subsequent narrowing, leading to a transformation from a pattern of multi-level differentiated gradient development to one of polarization, while also witnessing the emergence of a trend towards balanced development. (2)There is a high probability that each city will maintain its current level of development, confirming the phenomenon of solidification at high-level cities. (3)The regional gap primarily stems from inter-regional disparities and has shown a decreasing trend over the years. (4)High-quality development exhibits both high agglomeration and low agglomeration spatial characteristics, with significant radiation effects from higher-level cities. (5)The per capita utilization of foreign capital, residents' living standards, the level of marketization, and the rationalization of industrial structure are key determinants influencing the high-quality economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Additionally, factors such as unemployment rate, per capita participation in pension insurance, and energy efficiency also pose significant challenges to enhancing the level of high-quality economic development in certain provinces and cities.


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