长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (6): 1312-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202506013

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

数字经济发展对城市碳排放的影响研究——基于长三角城市群的实证分析

徐丽梅,张禹*   

  1. (上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海 200020)
  • 出版日期:2025-06-20 发布日期:2025-06-27

Impact of Digital Economy Development on Urban Carbon Emissions——An Empirical Analysis Based on Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration 

XU Li-mei, ZHANG Yu   

  1. (Institute of Applied Economics, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences ,Shanghai 200020,China)
  • Online:2025-06-20 Published:2025-06-27

摘要: 数字经济作为我国经济增长的加速器与稳定器,在“双碳”政策的战略导向下,对推动“双碳”政策实现有何作为?选取长三角城市群26座城市2011~2019年的平衡面板数据,使用熵权法测度数字经济发展水平,并运用双向固定效应和中介效应模型对数字经济发展与城市碳排放强度的关系及作用机制展开实证分析。结果表明:(1)数字经济发展与城市碳排放强度之间存在倒“U”型关系,经过一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立;(2)机制分析中,城市数字经济发展与产业结构升级呈“U”型关系,且数字经济可以通过影响产业结构升级间接影响城市碳排放强度;(3)在数字经济发展与城市碳排放强度倒“U”型拐点前后,绿色创新能力分别表现为“遮掩效应”和“中介效应”;(4)长三角城市群中经济发展水平较低的城市相较于经济发展水平较高的城市,数字经济发展会导致更多的碳排放;“智慧城市”试点城市相较于非试点城市,数字经济发展对促进碳减排的作用更明显。最后,基于研究结论提出相关政策建议,对实现数字经济的绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。

Abstract: As an accelerator and stabilizer of economy growth in China, the digital economy plays a crucial role in realizing the "dual-carbon" policy objectives.Based the balanced panel data from 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2011 to 2019, this paper measures the level of digital economy development employing entropy weight method and empirically analyzes the relationship between digital economy development and urban carbon emissions intensity, as well as the underlying mechanisms employing two-way fixed effects and mediation effects model.The results indicate: (1) There exists an inverted "U-shaped" relationship between digital economy development and urban carbon emissions intensity, which remains valid after a series of robustness tests; (2) Mechanism analysis reveals a "U-shaped" relationship between urban digital economy development and industrial structure upgrading, with digital economy indirectly affecting urban carbon emissions intensity through its influence on industrial structure upgrading; (3) Before and after the turning point of the inverted "U-shaped" relationship between digital economy development and urban carbon emissions intensity, green innovation capability exhibits respectively a "masking effect" and a "mediation effect"; (4) The digital economy development of the cities with lower levels of economic development in the Yangtze River Delta tend to experience higher carbon emissions compared to cities with higher economic development levels.Additionally, the role of digital economy development in promoting carbon emission reduction is more pronounced in "smart city" pilot cities compared to non-pilot cities.Finally, based on the research findings, relevant policy recommendations are proposed, which hold significant implications for achieving green and low-carbon development in the digital economy era

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