长江流域资源与环境 >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (09): 1466-1474.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201609018
• 自然灾害 • 上一篇
殷志远1, 李俊1, 胡小梅2, 彭涛1, 杨芳3
YIN Zhi-yuan1, LI Jun1, HU Xiao-mei2, PENG Tao1, YANG Fang3
摘要: 利用2006~2008年AREM模式预报降雨和漳河水库逐小时雨量站观测降雨及入库流量资料,对水库流域进行网格划分,建立了基于网格的空间分辨率分别为(0.25°×0.25°)和(0.5°×0.5°)的降雨预报统计降尺度模型,同时对降尺度模型了进行了模拟效果的检验,证明该降尺度模型的计算结果可以用于漳河水库洪水预报试验。从2009~2010年中选取了4次洪水过程,进行个例试验,试验结果表明,统计降尺度模型对洪水过程效率系数的改进效果不明显,但对减小预报洪峰流量相对误差有一定的效果,平均相对误差降低了10%左右,峰现时差也略有减小。
中图分类号:
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