Abstract: The water resource is a critical factor that restricts the social and economic development. Comprehensively and objectively evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the coordination between water resources utilization and population, economy, society and development. Taking 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) as the research unit, based on the ecological footprint model, it estimates the supply and demand condition about the ecological balance of water resources in China from 2003 to 2018, and it predicts the variation trend for the future by ARIMA model. The results show that: (1)The interannual fluctuation of China’s per capita water resources carrying capacity is large, while the ecological footprint of per capita water resources shows a small fluctuation trend that firstly increases and then decreases. The overall ecological budget of per capita water resources is surplus, but it approaches the edge of the deficit with the years that have low precipitation. (2)Geographically, China’s water resources carrying capacity has maintained a macro-pattern, which has a surplus in the south and a deficit in the north. The per capita water resources are mainly in surplus and overload areas, and the ecological budget of water resources has significant difference among regions. (3)China’s agricultural water takes up the highest proportion of the four categories of accounts. During the study, the per capita agricultural and industrial water footprint change from increase to decrease, and the per capita living and ecological water footprint increase progressively year by year. Except for Beijing, the main water accounts of other provinces are agriculture and industry. (4)The ecological budget of per capita water resources in China presents a regional pattern of “whole stable and local variation”. In the past 15 years, the ecological overload of water resources in 20 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) has accelerated. (5)In the future, the ecological budget of per capita water resources will deteriorate in some areas from 30°N-40°N, but gradually improve in most areas. The southeast and northwest regions have great potential to improve the ecological environment of water resources, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will deteriorate. The severe warning areas may be formed in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Liaoning.