长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (7): 1441-1454.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202207003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长三角城市群旅游环境承载力时空分异格局与空间效应研究

刘  佳1,2,刘贤明1,安珂珂1,侯佳佳1   

  1. (1. 中国海洋大学管理学院,山东 青岛 266100; 2. 中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院,山东 青岛 266100)
  • 出版日期:2022-07-20 发布日期:2022-08-22

Research on Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Spatial Effect of Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations

LIU Jia1,2, LIU Xian-ming1, AN Ke-ke1, HOU Jia-jia1   

  1. (1. School of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China; 2. Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China)
  • Online:2022-07-20 Published:2022-08-22

摘要: 旅游环境承载力的空间分异及其关联规律是客观存在的,科学评估承载能力和制定空间管控政策是促进区域旅游可持续发展的重要路径。以2000~2018年长三角城市群26个城市面板数据为研究样本,统筹考虑经济、社会、资源、生态要素并将其纳入驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应系统,建立基于DPSIR理论模型的旅游环境承载力评价指标体系,采用空间自相关方法揭示长三角城市群旅游环境承载力的空间关联特征,并运用空间计量模型及其偏微分分解方法对旅游环境承载力的空间溢出效应进行分析。结果表明:(1)研究期间,长三角城市群旅游环境承载力整体保持波动上升态势,并呈现“东南高、西北低”的空间分布特征。(2)旅游环境承载力呈现较强的空间集聚与关联特征,空间关联强度呈“上升-下降-上升-下降”的“M”字型变化趋势。(3)旅游环境承载力具有显著的空间溢出效应,本地城市旅游环境承载力指数每增长1个单位,将带动邻近城市增长0.637个单位。经济发展水平、科技进步水平、环境规制强度、旅游产业集聚对本地城市旅游环境承载力存在直接效应,对邻近城市存在不同程度溢出效应。为有效挖掘新时期长三角城市群旅游环境承载潜力,应重视城际之间旅游环境承载力空间关联与溢出效应,充分发挥城际之间合作联动作用,推动旅游环境复合系统要素的空间合理配置。

Abstract: The spatial differentiation and correlation of tourism environmental carrying capacity exist objectively, and scientific evaluation of the carrying capacity and formulation of spatial management and control policies are important ways to promote the sustainable development of regional tourism. Utilizing the panel data of 26 cities in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations from 2000 to 2018, the evaluation index system of tourism environmental carrying capacity based on DPSIR theoretical model was established by comprehensively considering economic, social, resource and ecological factors which were incorporated into the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response system. The spatial auto-correlation method was applied to reveal the spatial correlation characteristics of tourism environmental carrying capacity of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations, and then the spatial econometric model and partial differential decomposition method were used to analyze the spatial spillover effect of tourism environmental carrying capacity. The results indicated that: (1) During the study period, the tourism environmental carrying capacity of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations as a whole maintained a fluctuating upward trend, and showed a spatial distribution characteristics of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”. (2) The tourism environmental carrying capacity showed strong spatial agglomeration and correlation characteristics, and the intensity of spatial correlation showed an “M” type change trend of “rising-declining-rising-declining”. (3) The tourism environmental carrying capacity had a significant positive space spillover effect, and every 1  Unit growth in a local city will lead to 0.637 Unit growth in neighboring cities. Economic development level, technological progress level, environmental regulation intensity and tourism industry agglomeration had positive direct effect on local cities and different degrees spillover effect on neighboring cities. In order to effectively explore the potential of capacity environmental carrying potential of Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomerations in the new period, attention should be paid to the spatial correlation and spillover effects of tourism environmental carrying capacity between cities, give full play to the role of inter-city cooperation and linkage, and promote the rational spatial allocation of elements of tourism environment complex systems.

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