长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (7): 1563-1575.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202407016

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于PCA-RF的抚河下游生态最相关水文指标优选及演变分析

肖睿1,2,黄伟1,2,李琴3,张远发1,2,谢亨旺4,邓海龙4,贾卓1,2*   

  1. (1. 南昌大学工程建设学院,江西 南昌 330031;2. 南昌大学鄱阳湖环境与资源利用教育部重点实验室,江西 南昌 330031;3. 江西省科学院能源研究所,江西 南昌 330095;4.江西省灌溉试验中心站,江西 南昌 330201)
  • 出版日期:2024-07-20 发布日期:2024-07-18

Optimization and Change Analysis of the Ecological Relevant Hydrological Indicators in the Lower Reaches of the Fu River Based on PCA-RF 

XIAO Rui1,2,HUANG Wei1,2,LI Qing3,ZHANG Yuan-fa1,2,XIE Heng-wang4,DENG Hai-long4,JIA Zhuo1,2   

  1. (1. School of Engineering and Construction, Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;2. Key Laboratory of Environment and Resource Utilization of Poyang Lake, Ministry of Education, Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;3. Energy Research Institute of Jiangxi Academy of Sciences,Nanchang 330095,China;4. Jiangxi Irrigation Experiment Center Station,Nanchang 330201,China) 
  • Online:2024-07-20 Published:2024-07-18

摘要: 水文改变指标(IHA)能够较为全面的描述河流水文情势,但数量众多的指标之间存在一定的信息重叠问题,限制了其在水文与水生态领域的广泛应用。基于抚河下游李家渡水文站1953~2018年逐日径流数据,采用主成分分析法(PCA)初选出生态最相关指标(ERHIs),结合不同标签下指标的随机森林(RF)重要性评分,进一步优选出最为关键的ERHIs,并对其演变情况及影响因素进行了重点分析。抚河下游水文气象变异点为1962、1984和2002年,据此将研究期划分为基准期和影响期Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ;基于PCA法初选出了8个ERHIs,并利用RF重要性评分对其进一步优选出最小30日平均流量、1月平均流量、4月平均流量3个关键ERHIs;在3个影响期内,抚河下游关键ERHIs的整体水文改变度分别为31%、24%和50%;其中,最小30日平均流量在各影响期均呈现中高度改变,并在影响期Ⅰ和影响期Ⅲ内分别经历两次下降,这可能与流域内水利工程项目的数量和规模不断扩大有关;在80年代洪门水库建设运行后,汛期内的4月平均流量得到有效削减,而枯水期内的1月平均流量则有小幅提升;21世纪后,受气候变化以及城镇化进程影响,抚河下游关键ERHIs呈下降趋势。经过PCA-RF筛选后,抚河下游IHA体系得到了极大地简化,有助于把握其中的关键指标,对流域生态修复及水资源优化配置工作具有重要参考价值和借鉴意义。

Abstract: The Hydrological Change Indicators (IHA) can comprehensively describe the hydrological regime of rivers. However, there is a certain overlap of information between the numerous indicators, which limits their widespread application in the fields of hydrology and aquatic ecology. Based on the daily runoff data of Lijiadu Hydrological Station in the lower reaches of the Fu River from 1953 to 2018, ecologically relevant hydrological  indicators (ERHIs) were preliminarily selected by principal component analysis (PCA), and the key ERHIs were further selected by combining the random forest (RF) importance scores of indicators under different labels. The evolution and influencing factors were also analyzed emphatically. The hydrological and meteorological variation points in the lower reaches of the Fu River were in 1962, 1984, and 2002. Based on this, the research period was divided into the reference period and the first, second, and third impact periods; Based on the PCA method, 8 ERHIs were initially selected, and the RF importance score was used to further optimize the minimum 30 day average flow, January average flow, and April average flow of three key ERHIs; During the three impact periods, the overall hydrological changes of key ERHIs in the lower reaches of the Fu River were 31%, 24%, and 50%, respectively; Among them, the minimum 30 day average flow rate showed moderate to high changes in each impact period, and experienced two decreases in the first and third impact periods, respectively. This was considered to be related to the continuous expansion of the number and scale of water conservancy engineering projects in the river basin; After the construction and operation of Hongmen Reservoir in the 1980s, the average flow in April during flood seasons was effectively reduced, while the average flow in January during dry seasons showed a slight increase; After the 21st century, key ERHIs in the lower reaches of the Fu River showed a downward trend due to climate change and urbanization processes. After PCA-RF screening, the IHA system in the lower reaches of the Fu River was greatly simplified, which helped to grasp the key indicators and provide important reference value and significance for ecological restoration and water resource optimization.

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