长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (12): 2778-2788.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202412018

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    

基于RClimDex模型的嘉陵江流域极端降水分析及其对输沙量的影响

王晶晶,莫淑红*,张竞哲   

  1. (西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,陕西 西安 710048)
  • 出版日期:2024-12-20 发布日期:2024-12-27

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Jialing River Based on RClimDex Model and Influence on Sediment Yield

WANG Jing-jing,MO Shu-hong,ZHANG Jing-zhe   

  1. (State Key Laboratory of Eco-hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China)
  • Online:2024-12-20 Published:2024-12-27

摘要: 近年来,全球气候变暖导致极端水文事件频繁发生,引发了严重灾害并加剧了水土流失,因此研究极端降水对流域输沙量的影响,有利于更好地评估极端降水事件,尽可能减少极端降水事件造成的危害。基于嘉陵江流域及其周边20个气象站点的日降水数据,选取7个极端降水指数,通过RClimDex模型定量计算各指数结果,并运用线性倾向估计法和克里金插值法分析其极端降水的趋势变化和空间分布特征。采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Lee-Heghinian法确定突变点,最后用双累积曲线法定量分析极端降水变化和人类活动对流域输沙量变化的贡献率。结果表明:(1)嘉陵江流域极端降水事件的强度和频率趋于增加,但极端降水事件的持续时间趋于减少;空间分布上,大部分指数均呈现自东南向西北递减的趋势;(2)由输沙量年际变化分析可知,这45 a间输沙量总体呈显著下降趋势,流域输沙量在1984年发生突变。(3)根据输沙量-极端降水指数双累积曲线结果,极端降水变化和人类活动共同导致了流域输沙量的减少,其中人类活动是主要因素,贡献率高达90%以上;与年降水量的贡献率结果进行对比分析,发现极端降水对输沙量减少的贡献率明显高于年降水。该研究可为提高流域防灾减灾能力和流域水沙管理提供一定的理论依据。

Abstract: In recent years, global warming led to frequent occurrence of extreme hydrological events, which caused severe disasters in terms of aggravated soil erosion. Therefore, studying the impact of extreme precipitation on sediment transport is of significant importance towards a better understanding of the influencing mechanism to minimize the impacts of extreme precipitation events. Based on the daily precipitation data of 20 meteorological stations in Jialing River basin and the surrounding areas, this paper selected 7 extreme precipitation indexes, and calculated each index by RClimDex model. The trend change and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation were explored by using linear tendency estimation method and Kriging interpolation method. Mann-Kendall catastrophe test and Lee-Heghinian catastrophe test were adopted to determine the catastrophe point. Finally, the double cumulative curve method was used to quantitatively analyze the contribution rate of extreme precipitation change and the contribution of human activities to the change of sediment discharge. The results showed that: (1) The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events tended to increase, while the duration of extreme precipitation events tended to decrease. In terms of spatial distribution, most of the indexes showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. (2) The sediment discharge showed a significant downward trend in the past 45 years, with an abrupt change in 1984. (3) Extreme precipitation and human activities jointly led to the decrease of sediment discharge. Human activities were the main factor, contributing up over 90% of the changes. Compared to the contribution rate of annual precipitation, extreme precipitation demonstrated a greater contribution to the reduction of sediment discharge. This study provided a theoretical basis for improving the ability of disaster prevention and management of water and sediment transport in the area.

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