长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (1): 1-13.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202501001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

长三角城市群城镇化质量时空分异与驱动机制

刘宝涛,李瑞华   

  1. (吉林农业大学经济管理学院,吉林 长春 130118)
  • 出版日期:2025-01-20 发布日期:2025-01-24

Spatial and Temporal Differences and Driving Mechanisms of Urbanization Quality in the Yangtze River Delta City Cluster

LIU Bao-tao,LI Rui-hua   

  1. (School of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China)
  • Online:2025-01-20 Published:2025-01-24

摘要:  党的二十大报告明确提出,高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务,坚持以高质量发展为主题,推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。融入党的“二十大”关于高质量发展的新时代要求,融合“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”五大新发展理念,构建城镇化质量评价指标体系,运用CRITIC-熵值法组合赋权、TOPSIS方法与ESDA空间统计模型揭示2005~2021年长三角城市群城镇化质量时空分异特征,借助地理探测器探究其驱动机制。研究结果表明:(1)城镇化质量呈现“波动提升—平稳提升—显著提升”三阶段时序演化特征;6个维度排序为协调有序、绿色发展、共享繁荣、经济支撑、开放程度、创新驱动;城镇化质量的持续、稳步提升主要得益于其协调发展水平有序提高、基础设施水平持续优化、公共服务质量明显改善以及绿色发展理念有力践行,未来时期应着力实施创新驱动战略、拓展开放型经济为城镇化质量提升注入创新活力与新质动能。(2)城镇化质量呈现以上海、南京等中心城市为内核的“核心—边缘”梯度递减空间格局特征;高质量区为上海、南京等核心城市、省会城市,较高质量区集中于核心城市、省会城市外围地区,较低、低质量区分布于长三角西北内陆偏远地区。(3)城镇化质量呈现显著的空间正相关特征且空间集聚态势趋于增强,具有相邻连接协同发展趋势;局部空间自相关特征以高-高集聚型和低-低集聚型为主。(4)城镇化质量由多核心因子驱动演化,核心因子数量增加、解释能力q值逐年增强且因子间交互作用能够更高程度地解释其时空分异特征;驱动机制表现为以经济支撑发挥持久动力、协调有序铸牢平稳动力、科技创新与共享繁荣彰显后续动力、绿色发展与开放程度作为潜在动力的6维度交互演化。基于此,得出相关政策启示,以期为提升长三角城市群城镇化质量、促进城镇化健康、有序、平稳发展提供科学依据与重要参考。

Abstract: The report of the 20th CPC National Congress clearly puts forward that high-quality development is the primary task of building a socialist modernized country in an all-round way, adheres to the theme of high-quality development, and pushes the economy to achieve effective qualitative upgrading and reasonable quantitative growth. High-quality development has become the guiding ideology of China's socio-economic development and the topic of academia, and urban agglomerations, as the strategic highland of regional development, are facing the key task of “improving quality and increasing efficiency”. The article integrates the requirements of the 20th Party Congress on high-quality development and the five new development concepts of “innovation, coordination, greenness, openness and sharing”, constructs an evaluation index system of urbanization quality, reveals the spatial and temporal characteristics of urbanization quality in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster, and explores the urbanization quality of the Yangtze River Delta city cluster with the help of geographic probes. The study reveals the spatial and temporal characteristics of urbanization quality in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and explores its driving mechanism with the help of geographic probes. The results of the study show that: (1) the quality of urbanization shows a three-stage temporal evolution of “fluctuating improvement-steady improvement-significant improvement”, and the six dimensions of urbanization are: orderly coordination, green development, sharing and prosperity, economic support, openness, and innovation drive; The continuous and steady improvement of the quality of urbanization is mainly due to the orderly improvement of its coordinated development, the continuous optimization of the infrastructure level, the obvious improvement of the quality of public services, and the strong practice of the concept of green development, and in the future, efforts should be made to implement the innovation-driven strategy, and to expand the open economy in order to inject innovative vitality and new dynamic energy into the improvement of the quality of urbanization. (2) The quality of urbanization is characterized by the spatial pattern of “core-periphery” gradient with Shanghai, Nanjing and other central cities as the core; high-quality zones are core cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing and provincial capitals, while higher-quality zones are concentrated in the peripheral areas, and lower-quality and low-quality zones are distributed in the northwestern and remote inland areas of the Yangtze River Delta. The lower and lower quality districts are distributed in the remote areas in the interior of the Yangtze River Delta. (3) The quality of urbanization shows significant positive spatial correlation and the spatial agglomeration tends to increase; the local spatial autocorrelation is dominated by the high-high agglomeration type and the low-low agglomeration type. (4) The quality of urbanization is driven by multiple core factors, with the number of core factors increasing, the q value of the explanatory ability increasing year by year, and the interaction between the factors explaining the spatial and temporal characteristics of the spatial and temporal variations to a higher degree; the driving mechanism is a six-dimensional interaction with economic support as a lasting driving force, coordinated and orderly casting of a stable driving force, scientific and technological innovation and sharing prosperity as a subsequent driving force, and green development and openness as a potential driving force. Evolution. Based on this, relevant policy insights are drawn in order to provide a scientific basis and important reference for improving the quality of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster and promoting the healthy, orderly and smooth development of urbanization.

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