长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (2): 295-308.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202502005

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长三角城市群碳排放效率与经济高质量发展耦合协调研究

龚银银,张永庆*,罗婷   

  1. (上海理工大学管理学院,上海 200093)
  • 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-02-28

Coupling Coordination between Carbon Emission Efficiency and High-quality Economic Development in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

GONG Yin-yin, ZHANG Yong-qing, LUO Ting   

  1. (School of Management, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093,China)
  • Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-28

摘要: 双碳背景下,碳排放效率与经济高质量发展的同频共振成为城市群低碳发展的重要推动力。以长三角城市群26个地级市为研究对象,运用熵权法、Super-SBM和地理探测器等模型,探索长三角城市群碳排放效率与经济高质量发展耦合协调的时空演变和驱动机制。研究发现:(1)碳排放效率、经济高质量发展和综合得分三类数值具有明显的空间指向性,东西方向上均呈现“东高西低”的特征,南北方向上除碳排放效率外均呈现“U”型曲线。(2)长三角城市群整体上呈现以上海、苏州等高经济发展水平城市为核心的高值区域向周围辐射的发展模式,且上海市的耦合协调度最高。协调水平落后城市以及低值集聚区存在区域锁定现象,呈现出“弱者恒弱”的空间集聚局面。(3)各驱动因子在不同时期和不同程度上均能促进城市耦合协调发展,其中经济基础和技术创新的单因子驱动力突出,而单因子影响力较低的环境规制、人力资本和产业结构因子在与其他因子进行交互作用后驱动力度得到明显提升。鉴于此,从优化城市布局形态、定点帮扶低值锁定区和充分发挥协调发展的内外驱动力等方面提出城市群联动发展的相关政策建议。

Abstract: In the context of dual carbon goals, the synchronous resonance between carbon emission efficiency (CEE) and high-quality economic development (HQED) has emerged as a crucial driver for low-carbon development in urban agglomerations. This study focused on 26 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in China. By employing models such as entropy weight method, Super-SBM, and geographic detector, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of the coupling coordination between CEE and HQED in the YRD urban agglomeration. The study revealed that: (1) CEE, HQED, and comprehensive scores exhibited significant spatial orientations, showing an "east high, west low" pattern in the east-west direction, and a "U-shaped" curve in the north-south direction, with the exception of CEE. (2) The overall development pattern of the YRD urban agglomeration showed a high-value regional development model radiating from core cities with high economic development levels such as Shanghai and Suzhou, with Shanghai exhibiting the highest degree of coupling coordination. Underdeveloped coordination levels in cities and low-value agglomeration areas exhibited a phenomenon of regional lock-in, presenting a spatial agglomeration pattern of "the weak remain weak". (3) Various driving factors might promote the coordinated development of cities at different time periods and to varying degrees. Among them, the single-factor driving forces of economic foundation and technological innovation were found to be prominent, while environmental regulations, human capital, and industrial structure factors with lower single-factor influence exhibited significantly increased driving forces when interacting with other factors. In light of this, policy recommendations for promoting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations were proposed in this study, which included optimizing urban layout forms, providing targeted assistance to low-value lock-in areas, and fully leveraging internal and external driving forces for coordinated development.

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