长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (09): 1958-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202509006

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

场域视角下的长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全评价及预测研究

何伟军1,2,覃晴1,2,袁亮1,2*   

  1. (1.湖北省高校人文社科重点研究基地-流域综合治理与水经济发展研究中心,湖北 宜昌 443002;
    2.三峡大学经济与管理学院,湖北 宜昌 443002)
  • 出版日期:2025-09-20 发布日期:2025-09-22

Safety Evaluation and Prediction of the Water-Energy-Food System in the  Yangtze River Economic Belt from a Field Perspective

HE Wei-jun1,2, QIN Qing1,2, YUAN Liang1,2   

  1.   (1. The Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences of Hubei Province-Research Center for
     Integrated Watershed Management & Water Economy Development, Yichang 443002, China;
    2.School of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002,  China)
  • Online:2025-09-20 Published:2025-09-22

摘要: 水资源、能源、粮食三者之间因相互需求和系统影响存在复杂的关联关系,可能会给自然资源、社会经济、生态环境带来潜在的安全风险。因此,基于系统关联视角,对水-能-粮系统安全进行分析有助于资源可持续性利用和经济社会高质量发展。聚焦长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全问题,首先,将场域概念引入水-能-粮系统安全分析框架,阐释水-能-粮系统在“资源-社会-生态”场域安全的概念和内涵,选取27个指标构建系统安全的评价指标体系;其次,基于水-能-粮系统的协同进化特征,结合GRA模型和FCEM模型评估2012~2022年长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全水平;最后,运用GM(1,1)模型预测2025~2030年长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全的演化态势。结果表明:(1)2012~2022年长江经济带场域安全水平存在较大差异,安全程度在空间上呈现出高值区从上游向下游扩张趋势。(2)2012~2022年长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全水平基本在0.65~0.70之间波动,安全程度由比较安全上升至安全。(3)2025~2030年长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全程度维持在安全区间,但是安全水平呈缓慢下降态势。研究结果有助于发现长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全时空分异及演变规律,为提升长江经济带水-能-粮系统安全提供参考借鉴。

Abstract: Water, energy, and food are intricately interconnected due to mutual demands and systematic influences, potentially posing latent security risks to natural resources, socio-economic systems, and ecological environments. Therefore, analyzing the security of water-energy-food (WEF) systems from a systemic correlation perspective contributes to the sustainable utilization of resources and high-quality socio-economic development. This paper focused on the security of the WEF system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). Firstly, the concept of field was introduced into the security analysis framework of the WEF system, elucidating the concept and connotation of WEF system security in the "resource-society-ecology" field. Twenty-seven indicators were  selected to construct an evaluation index system for system security. Secondly, based on the co-evolutionary characteristics of the WEF system, the GRA model and FCEM model were combined to assess the security level of the WEF system in the YREB from 2012 to 2022. Finally, the GM(1,1) model was employed to predict the evolution trend of WEF system security in the YREB from 2025 to 2030. The results indicated that: (1) There existed significant differences in the field security level of the YREB from 2012 to 2022, with a spatial trend of high-value areas expanding from upstream to downstream. (2) The security level of the WEF system in the YREB fluctuated between 0.65 and 0.70 from 2012 to 2022, indicating an improvement in security level. (3) The security level of the WEF system in the YREB would remain within the security range from 2025 to 2030, however a slight downward trend was predicted. These findings help identify the spatial and temporal differentiation and the evolution patterns of WEF system security in the YREB, and may provide a reference for exploring ways to enhance WEF system security in the region.

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