长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (1): 1-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202601001

• 区域可持续发展 •    下一篇

长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力时空演化特征及其影响因素研究

黄  鑫1,2,邓宏兵1,2*,廖赫然1,2,焦弘睿1,2   

  1. (1.中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074;2.湖北省区域创新能力监测与分析软科学研究基地,湖北 武汉 430074)
  • 出版日期:2026-01-20 发布日期:2026-01-20

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Old Industrial Cities in Yangtze River Economic Belt

  1. (1.School of Economics and Management, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan,Wuhan 430074,China;2.Institutes of Soft Science on Regional Innovation Capacity Monitoring and Analysis,  Wuhan 430074,China)
  • Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-01-20

摘要:  长江经济带作为新时代国家重大发展战略区域,在当前发展阶段仍然存在区域发展失衡问题。开展长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力研究,对振兴老工业城市、促进长江经济带实现区域协调发展和可持续发展都有着重要意义。基于此,以2012~2022年长江经济带32个老工业城市的面板数据为研究样本,从社会、经济、基础设施、资源、环境五个维度构建了长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力指标评价体系,采用时空演化特征分析、Dagum基尼系数、最优参数地理探测器和时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型,探讨了长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力时空演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)研究期间内长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力有着显著增长,其均值在空间分布上呈“东高西低”的“梯形”分布。(2)长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力存在发展差异,其中区域间差异是影响总体差异的主要原因。(3)城镇化水平、科技支出、经济发展、外商投资、消费水平、绿色创新、数字基础设施对长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力有着明显的驱动作用,并且两两作用后驱动解释力度会得到显著提高。(4)时空地理加权回归(GTWR)模型结果表明城镇化水平对长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力的促进作用最大,且呈逐年增长趋势;绿色创新和数字基础设施的促进作用持续减弱。研究结果为促进长江经济带老工业城市综合承载力提供了一定的参考价值。

Abstract: As a primary national development strategy in the new era, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) still faces the problem of unbalanced regional development in the current stage.It is of great significance to study the comprehensive carrying capacity of the old industrial cities in the YREB to revitalize them and promote the coordinated and sustainable development.Based on the panel data of 32 old industrial cities from 2012 to 2022, the comprehensive carrying capacity index evaluation system of old industrial cities was constructed.Five dimensions were included, such as society, economy, infrastructure, resources and environment.The Dagum Gini coefficient, optimal parameter geographic detector and spatiotemporal weighted regression (GTWR) model were used.The results showed that: (1) The comprehensive carrying capacity of the old industrial cities increased significantly during the study period, and its mean value showed a trapezoidal distribution of "high in the east and low in the west".(2) There existed development differences in the comprehensive carrying capacity, among which regional differences were the main one that affected the overall differences.(3) It was found that urbanization level, science and technology expenditure, economic development, foreign investment, consumption level, green innovation, and digital infrastructure had apparent driving effects on the comprehensive carrying capacity of the old industrial cities, and the driving interpretation would be significantly improved after the dual effects.(4) The urbanization level had the most significant effect of an increasing trend on the comprehensive carrying capacity.The catalytic role of green innovation and digital infrastructure continued to wane over time.This research provided a reference value for promoting the comprehensive carrying capacity of the old industrial cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

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