长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (1): 257-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202601020

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    

长江上游地区农业用地适宜性时空演变特征及其主导因素

胥娟1,焦翠翠2*   

  1. (1. 河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北 保定 071000;2. 四川轻化工大学经济学院,四川 宜宾 644000)
  • 出版日期:2026-01-20 发布日期:2026-01-20

Spatial and Temporal Evolution and Dominant Factors of Agricultural Land Suitability in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River

XU Juan1,JIAO Cui-cui2   

  1. (1. College of Economics and Management, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China;
    2. School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Yibin 644000, China)
  • Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-01-20

摘要: 为科学评估长江上游地区ALS的时空演变规律,构建了集成地理信息系统、熵权法及主控因子识别方法的综合评价模型,对2005~2020年该区域ALS开展时空分析。结果表明:(1)空间上,长江上游地区ALS呈显著空间分异特征。SCB自然条件优渥,是适宜开展农业生产的理想区域;WS-ET与YNP空间分布格局相似,比较适宜和一般适宜等级集中连片分布,是较为理想的农业生产区域;GZP有60%面积属于比较适宜及以上等级区域,但斑块化特征明显,是农业生产开发的潜力区。其余农业区划国土空间面积狭小,多为一般适宜及以下等级区域,对农业生产较为不利。(2)时间上,研究区ALSA持续减少。2005~2010年减少面积集中在YNP和WS-ET的不适宜等级及SCB和QT的适宜等级区域,2010~2015年减面积集中在YNP和SCB的比较适宜等级及WS-ET和SCB一般适宜等级区域,2015~2020年减少面积集中在WS-ET和GZP的比较适宜等级区域。(3)整体适宜性和各等级适宜性重心呈差异化偏移轨迹,农业用地重心偏移是耕地优化集中和气候变化共同驱动作用的结果。(4)SEro、AP和STex是研究区ALS的主控因子,主导区域分别是QT、SCB和GZP、WS-ET和YNP。结果表明,研究区ALSA时空演变特征和减少趋势明显,需基于主控因子实施分区调控策略,以优化耕地资源利用并保障区域粮食安全。

Abstract: To scientifically evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution laws of agricultural land suitability (ALS) in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation model that integrated geographic information system (GIS), entropy weight method, and dominant factor identification method. This study conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of ALS in the study area from 2005 to 2020. Results showed that: (1) ALS exhibited significant spatial differentiation. Sichuan Basin area (SCB) had favorable natural conditions and was an ideal area for agricultural production. Spatial distribution of Western Sichuan and eastern Tibet areas (WS-ET) was similar to that of Yunnan Plateau area (YNP). The concentrated and contiguous area of moderately and generally suitable level constituted a relatively favorable region for agricultural production. 60% of Guizhou Plateau area (GZP) belonged to the relatively suitable area, but it had obvious patchy characteristics and was a potential area for agricultural production and development. The rest of the agricultural zoning demonstrated a small territorial space area, mostly being at the general suitable level or below, which was rather unfavorable for agricultural production. (2) The agricultural land suitability area (ALSA) continued to decrease. From 2005 to 2010, the reduced area was concentrated in the unsuitable level of YNP and WS-ET and the suitable level of SCB and Southern region of Qiangtang (QT). From 2010 to 2015, the reduced area was concentrated in the relatively suitable level of YNP and SCB and the generally suitable level of WS-ET and SCB. The reduced area from 2015 to 2020 was concentrated in the relatively suitable level areas of WS-ET and GZP. (3) The centroid of overall suitability and all the suitability levels showed differentiated shift trajectories. Shift trajectory of agricultural land centroids was the result of joint driving effect of optimization and concentration of cultivated land and climate change. (4) Soil erosion (SEro), annual precipitation (AP), and soil texture (STex) were the dominant factors of ALS, and the dominant regions were QT, SCB and GZP, WS-ET and YNP, respectively. The results showed that the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and decreasing trend of agricultural land suitability area (ALSA) in the study area were significant. It was necessary to implement zonal regulation strategies based on the dominant factors to optimize the utilization of cultivated land resources and ensure regional food security.

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