21世纪三峡库区极端气温指数的情景预估

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2010, Vol. 19 >> Issue (05): 590-.

•　自然灾害　• 上一篇

21世纪三峡库区极端气温指数的情景预估

张天宇¹| 范莉¹| 程炳岩¹| 刘晓冉¹| 许崇海²

（重庆市气候中心| 重庆 401147； 2.国家气候中心| 北京 100081）

出版日期:2010-05-20

SCENARIOS PROJECTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES IN THE THREE GORGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

ZHANG Tianyu1| FAN Li1| CHENG Bingyan1| LIU Xiaoran1| XU Chonghai2

(1.Chongqing Climate Center| Chongqing 401147| China； 2.National Climate Center| Beijing 100081| China)

Online:2010-05-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用气候模式诊断与比较计划(PCMDI）提供的9个新一代气候系统模式的模拟结果，通过多模式集合方法预估分析了3种排放情景(高排放A2、中等排放A1B和低排放B1）下21世纪三峡库区3种极端气温指数的可能变化。结果表明：21世纪三峡库区气温年较差呈震荡的趋势，主要将以增大为主。暖夜指数和热浪指数都将显著增加。整个21世纪，库区气温年较差将增加04~08℃，暖夜指数将增加133%~174%，热浪指数将增加85~133 d。分阶段来看，21世纪前期，气温年较差将增加02~06℃；暖夜指数将增加51%~73%，热浪指数将增加31~41 d；21世纪中期，气温年较差将增加04~10℃，暖夜指数将增加136%~189%，热浪指数将增加77~121 d；21世纪后期，气温年较差将增加06~14℃，暖夜指数将增加191%~289%，热浪指数将增加143~237 d

Abstract:

The projections of extreme temperature indices（ETR、TN90 and HWDI）in the Three Gorges for the 21st century by using the global climate system models provided by PCMDI with the SRES A2，A1B and B1 that joined the IPCC fourth scientific assessment report were analyzed in this paper.The results showed that compared to the current climate（1980～1999），ETR will possibly increase in the most of period in the 21st century，TN90 and HWDI will sharply increase.During the 21th century(2011～2100），ETR will be increased by 04℃~08℃，TN90 increased by 133%~174%，HWDI increased by 85~133 day.In the earlier stage of 21st century(2011～2040），ETR will be increased by 02℃~06℃，TN90 increased by 51%~73%，HWDI increased by 31~41 day.In the mid 21st century (2041～2070），ETR will be increased by 04℃~10℃，TN90 increased by 136%~189%，HWDI increased by 77~121 day.In the later stage of 21st century (2071～2100），ETR will be increased by 06℃~14℃，TN90 increased by 191%~289%，HWDI increased by 143~237 day.

张天宇, 范莉, 程炳岩, 刘晓冉, 许崇海. 21世纪三峡库区极端气温指数的情景预估[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(05): 590-.

ZHANG Tian-Yu, FAN Li, CHENG Bing-Yan, LIU Xiao-Dan, HU Chong-Hai. SCENARIOS PROJECTION OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES IN THE THREE GORGES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2010, 19(05): 590-.

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