Abstract:

Population is one of the key factors which affect regional economic and social development by influencing industrial and urban function， the amount and intensity of usage on water and land resources， and construction of traffic infrastructure and public service facilities The promotion of new urbanization， the construction of ecological civilization， and the transformation of economic development mode， make it a more important issue for regional population forecast Under the background of the resources and environmental constraints and the transformation of economic development， factors affecting the population development in economically developed areas tend to be more and more complicated Therefore， the related research is of significance for the enriching research on population forecast， coordinating the relationship among population， resource， and economic development Wuxi city is of the major constituent parts of core areas of Yangtze Delta which is one of the three most developed economic regions of China After thirty years highspeed economic development since Reform & Openingup， Wuxi city is bearing bigger and bigger resource and environmental pressure， and at the stage of speeding economic transformation Taking Wuxi city as the case area， the population forecast was carried out from the aspect of land carrying capacity Economic reasonable population forecast was performed using the EOPMM model The relationship between land carrying capacity and economic rational population was compared and the future population development trend was analyzed Results indicated that the rational population size was of about 402 million from the aspect of carrying capacity of land resources， and the economic reasonable population was about 404 and 434 million in the year of 2015 and 2020， respectively The carrying capacity of land resources would be overloaded gradually and the overloading ratio would be close to 8% at the year of 2020 However， the density of population would be 3 810 people per square kilometer in the year of 2020， which is smaller than that of municipal districts of Shanghai， total Shenzhen and Greater London The total population would constantly increase in the future， but the growth speed would slow down gradually Under the background of slow natural growth， floating population would still be the main parts of increased permanent resident population， and its proportion would increase steadily The proportions of increased floating population accounted for increased amount of total permanent resident population from 1990 to 2000， 2000 to 2010， 2010 to 2020 are 77%， 72% and 85%， respectively The proportion of floating population accounted for total permanent resident population would be 38% and 40%， which are close to that of Shanghai and Suzhou Increased supply of job opportunities caused by rapid economic growth would still be the main reason for the population growth The population increased with the growth of regional GDP， and the development of the second industry was of most closely correlation with population growth In summary， it is necessary to reduce the pressure on resources and environment and guarantee the economic development through measures for controlling population growth and optimizing population structure， such as adjusting the industrial structure， improving labor productivity， and ameliorating the public service facilities， etc