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Table of Content
20 August 2015, Volume 24 Issue 08
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  • SCENARIO PLANNING OF LAND USE IN WETLAND PARK BASED ON CLUE-S MODEL——A CASE OF XINJIZHOU NATIONAL WETLAND PARK IN THE YANGTZE RIVER
    WANG Hui, YU Chao, LI Ming-yang, SHI Yu, YANG Yu-feng
    2015, (08):  1263-1269.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508001
    Abstract ( 870 )   PDF (1048KB) ( 17 )   Save
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    Wetland park planning based on computer models has the advantage of low cost, high efficiency, more scenarios, and the ability to provide preliminary scheme to estimate and select. This research applied CLUE-S model in wetland park planning, combined with ecological protection scenario and tourism development scenario, with an aim to predict the landscape pattern in 2020 of the Xinjizhou Wetland Park. At last, from the angle of minimum cumulative resistance, the two scenarios were compared and analyzed. The results are as follows. First, in the first scenario of ecological protection, the wetland and forest will comprise the major components of the park in 2020, occupying 47.6 percent and 39.9 percent of the total land area, respectively, while the land for grassland and built-up is only 10.9% and 0.6%. In the second scenario of tourism development, the land for wetland, forest, grassland and built-up in 2020 will be 46.9%, 34.7%,1.7% and 16.75,respectively.To verify the applicability of CLUE-S model in the study area, the accuracy test index of Kappa was calculated and its value reached 0.763, indicating the CLUE-S model has good reliability in the study area. Secondly, the content of soil organic matter was the most important driving factor to promote landscape changes in wetland park and its effect was much higher than the other factors, including wetland height, slope, soil pH, organic matter content and the distance from the shoreline, away from the main road. Thirdly, by establishing the MCR model, it was found that the both two scenarios have their advantages and disadvantages. In the ecological protection scenario, the crossing corridor for wetland birds should be broadened and the man-made interference in the buffer of minimum resistance line should be reduced. Im the tourism development scenario, it is particularly important to construct the whole ecological series, and it needs to provide a good protection channel for wetland birds through the large resistance area in the central region. Though wetland park planning based computer models has its limitations, it can provide decision support for the spatial planning of wetland parks which are very sensitive to dramatic ecological changes. With the development of new computer technology based GIS models, scenario planning method will become an important tool for the making of wetland conservation and development plan in the future, thus exploring a new planning way to harmonious development of ecology and economy.
    SIMULATION OF LAND USE CHANGE AND ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES IN WUHAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION BASED ON A SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL
    HE Jian-hua, WANG Xiao-jun, DU Chao, LI Chun, SHI Xuan
    2015, (08):  1270-1278.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508002
    Abstract ( 876 )   PDF (945KB) ( 28 )   Save
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    Land use change is one of the main research subjects of global environmental change and sustainable development and driving force is the core issue of land use change. However, existing reseach on land use change is mainly focusd on a single administrative region, which is unable to explain the effect of interaction among cities on land use change in urban agglomeration led by city integration strategy. In line with the rational utilization of land, it is proposed that the interaction among cities should be considered as an effect of urban agglomeration land use change. As there has been little research to date on this issue, this paper introduces a system dynamic (SD) model which is established synthetically considering human driving forces such as population, economy, urbanization, policy, etc.. For assessing land use change led by city integration strategy in Wuhan urban agglomeration in which the interaction among cities is considered as one of driving forces. The applicability and reliability of the model was proved by the actual data of 1997-2006 from the Wuhan urban agglomeration, on the basis of it, the land use change under two different "what-if" scenarios controlled by the interaction between cities from 2010 to 2020 were simulated. The result suggested that the SD model has a certain applicability and reliability, and land use change under two different scenarios are obviously different, the speed of construction land use change in Wuhan urban agglomeration is accelerated from 2010 to 2020, but the tendency is different. It also indicated that led by "1+8"city integration strategy and with the effect of interaction among cities, the speed of construction land use change in Wuhan, Huangshi, E'zhou will be slowed down, and in other cities such as Xiantao, Tianmen, Qianjiang, the rate will increase rapidly, and this will bring the gap between cities in Wuhan urban agglomeration much closer. Not only the factors of population, economy, urbanization and policy have prominent driving effect on land use change in Wuhan urban agglomeration, interaction among cities also has good relationship with land use change. So we should pay much attention to interaction among cities, to strenghten the interaction strength between cities by improving the condition of transportation and information, aim to promote the Wuhan urban agglomeration the harmonious and sustainable development.
    CHARACTERISTICS AND EVOLUTION OF THE SUMMER HEAT ISLAND EFFECT IN WUHAN CITY GROUP
    YI Yu-qing, LONG Teng-fei, JIAO Wei-li, PENG Jian-wei, LIU Hui-chan, LING Sai-guang
    2015, (08):  1279-1285.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508003
    Abstract ( 658 )   PDF (3564KB) ( 13 )   Save
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    Wuhan City Group is a regional economy association which consists of the center city Wuhan, as well as eight other cities within 100 kilometers. It dominates half population and more than sixty percent of GDP of Hubei Province, in sharp contrast to its limited area occupying only one third of the province. Such a concentration and the consequent rapid development of urbanization have caused a lot of environmental problems such damages on the original natural environment, changes in the nature of underlying surfaces and irreversible changes in the structure, process and function of the ecosystem. These further bring about the urban heat island effect which deteriorates the city environment for recent years and needs an urgent solution. Our study attempts to obtain a comprehensive insight into the spatiotemporal pattern of this effect in this region and provide a basis for the solution. Our study is established on the year-by-year MODIS land surface temperature data from2000 through 2010. As the reference, the classification map produced from multi-source and multi-temporal remote sensing images is also available. In order to remove the annual variation of temperature, we defined the heat island intensity with a normalization processing on the original temperature. We used the frequency image of the top-rank intensity to measure the severity of the heat island effect. Different spatial distributions of the frequency are recognized in day and night time respectively, since the night-time result is partly disturbed by the water. But generally, the night-time heat island effect is more significant than that in day time. By averaging the day-night image to remove the disturbing factors, the highest frequency almost concentrates in highly developed urban areas such as Wuhan, revealing that the heat island effect firmly occurs in the build-up area and the severity is proportional to its size. The finding supports the conclusion that Wuhan becomes the main heat source of the whole city group.In the following analysis on the evolution of urban heat island, we find that pixels of top-rank intensity decrease while those of third-rank intensity increase over the 11 years, whether the day-time data or the night-time data is considered. It reveals a shrinking urban-rural temperature gap and a spreading tendency of the heat island effect, which coincide with the urbanization process of the city group. An essential conclusion is drawn that the overall thermal environment undoubtedly deteriorates. As the central city and the main heat source of the city group, Wuhan is specifically studied. According to the year-by-year histogram of the heat island intensity, the thermal condition of major regions gradually moves to the warmer end. In fact, the hyperthermic area has dramatically expanded since 2000. The result is consistent with the former analysis on the whole city group. As illustrated by the detailed distribution of hyperthermic areas from every year, the development of the newly-developing city zone has increased the distribution of heat source, while the increase of artificial surface and decrease of natural surface result in the aggravation of the urban heat island effect.
    ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS AND SPATIAL CORRELATION OF URBAN LAND INTENSIVE USE IN NANCHANG CENTRE AREA
    ZHAO Li-hong, CHEN Wen-bo, SHAO Hong
    2015, (08):  1286-1292.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508004
    Abstract ( 752 )   PDF (1720KB) ( 8 )   Save
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    Global urbanization has been accelerating since 1990s. In China, the urbanization level increased to over 50% in 2011. Along with economic growth and urban population explosion, human's disturbance on natural landscape is unprecedented, threatening national policy goals of arable land protection and environmental conservation. Thus, urban land intensive use has become a research hot spot in the field of Geography and Land Sciences. In this paper, based on the results of intensive land use, the spatial correlation of each urban function areas such as commercial, industrial, educational and residential are found out using global and local Moran's I index. The results showed that the area of moderate intensive land use accounts for 75.4% of the total area. The intensive use level decrease along with the distance to urban centre. There exists a high spatial correlation in each function area either in global or regional level. In global level, global Moran's I of each functional areas are greater than 0. It was discovered that residential function area has the strongest spatial correlation while educational function area has a weak correlation. Living functional area is the strongest, with an I value of 0.74 and the highest score of 163.73. They have similar values in the surrounding elements (higher or lower value). The main reason is that living area occupies the dominant position, supporting infrastructure complete, easy to form a neighbourhood effect. The industrial zone ranked second, with an I value of 0.62 and Z value of 8.48. The industrial park, economic and technological development zone, hi tech industrial park have strong correlation with each other. For the commercial district, the I value is 0.52 and the Z value is 7.68. City commercial land and residential land are close to the old city, so they are Gathered easily. In local level, there exists a positive correlation among function areas and presents an spatial aggregation characteristics. The high value of the clustering (HH) is mainly concentrated in the old city center area, with higher intensive degrees. Low value clustering (LL) is mainly distributed in the periphery of the old urban areas, which are comprehensive modern residential with complete infrastructure, but low occupancy rates, and low population density. Commercial and residential areas have high value of clustering, and industrial and educational function areas have low value of clustering. We argue that the areas with high value of intensive degree should adjust the structure of land use through the old city reconstruction and land replacement and the areas with low value of intensive degree should formulate a policy guidance to improve intensive degree. This paper is expected to support the urban intensive land use of case study area both in theoretical and practical means.
    ANALYSIS ON THE EROSION-ACCRETION CHANGES OF SHANGHAI PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX OFFSHORE SEABED AND THE SEAWALL STABILITY
    ZHENG Lu, LI Meng-ya, WANG Jun, ZHANG Wei, HE Xiao-feng
    2015, (08):  1293-1298.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508005
    Abstract ( 504 )   PDF (5245KB) ( 20 )   Save
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    The erosion-accretion characteristics and the underlying mechanisms of the Shanghai Petrochemical Complex(SPC) offshore seabed in 2000-2013, together with the stability evaluation of the seawall was studied with GIS software. Results indicate that: (1) Most areas of the seabed were in state of accretion in 2000-2013, but there emerged a great scouring intensity in the Jinshan Trough. Among them, the evolution of study areas was given priority to erosion in 2000-2004 and 2004-2008, with an average annual net erosion rate of 5.27 cm and 10.52 cm, respectively. But it was in accretion state in general in 2008-2012, with an average annual net accretion rate of to 8.50 cm. The study areas were mostly in steady state in 2012-2013, accounting for 76.04% of the total. (2) Analyses on the 8 cross sections showed that the terrain in the north was in relatively steady state. The terrain in the middle of the deep trough (section Ⅴ) was stable, but the Jinshan Trough was scoured southward in the west (section Ⅰ and Ⅱ) and east (the section Ⅶ and Ⅷ). And the areas shallower than 15 m were given priority to accretion in the south of study areas. (3) The seawall stability evaluation showed that the seawall was in primary and secondary stability level centrally distributed on the sixth coastal levee. For more than a decade, the erosion-accretion characteristics of the SPC offshore seabed was closely related to the loss of sand transport in Jinshan flood trough, and wading engineering constructions such as city beach and large-scale deposition promotion projects in Nanhui. New wading tourism development project is under developing, which still need much more concern.
    PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION FOR SWAT MODEL AND ITS EXTENDED APPLICATION IN THE DONGTING LAKE BASIN, YANGTZE RIVER
    SUN Zhan-dong, HUANG Qun, LOTZ Tom
    2015, (08):  1299-1304.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508006
    Abstract ( 864 )   PDF (1927KB) ( 9 )   Save
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    Distributed hydrological model becomes an important tool for revealing the temporal and spatial characteristics of water cycles at ranging scale. But the application of the model at regions without runoff observations is still a major obstacle to overcome. In this study, a HRU-based distributed hydrological model was developed with SWAT for a large lake basin based on DEM, land use, reservoir, climate and hydrological data. To obtain a deterministic and physical mechanism clear parameter system some field work on understanding of parameters was performed, then the calibrated and validated with SUFI-2 algorithm were conducted within the hydrological gauging station control regions by using SWAT-CUP. The results show that the application of the model could be more efficient with field knowledge support about rational value ranges of the parameters. The efficiency coefficient values NSE and the correlation of determination coefficient R2 values were easily reaching 0.81 at monthly step (0.62 for daily simulation), and the number of iteration progress was also largely reduced. In this distributed model, the hydrological response unit (HRUs) reflects the heterogeneity of hydrological behaviors of the catchment in space. Thus, some of the hydro-parameters are transportable between HRUs with similar conditions of terrain, land use and soil attributes. Base on the experimental knowledge and output of parameters from validation, the hydrological model was extended covering the whole basin by homogeneous transplantation of hydro-parameters in HRUs. For the ponder regions, the flow exchange process was dealt by introducing a virtual reservoir for each independent ponder. The output of the extended model successfully reveals the characters of ratios among ET, surface runoff, baseflow at a HRU, sub-basin and basin scales. The simulated baseflow, and ET processes are well consist with BFI and remote sending retrieved ET data. From the application of this study, a detailed database covering land use, soil properties and meteorology is an essential pre-requisite condition to start a distributed hydrological model. A logical parameter assembling is not only important for the set-up of distributed hydrological model, it is also crucial for its extending application. And the extendable of the model is also largely decided by the reasonable delineation for watershed and HRUs. The application has especially contributed for hydrological modeling in regions of gauging flow is partly absent in space. The parameters of HRUs which were generated from the modeling processes could be valuable support information for the study of water retention, vulnerability analysis, and spatial planning in view of the hydrological and ecological effects, which in turn may largely reduce the uncertainty analysis in land hydrology.
    GROWING SEASON NDVI VARIATION IN THE DONGTING LAKE WATERSHED FROM 1982 TO 2010 AND THE CLIMATIC AND ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCES
    GUO Jing, GUAN Hua-de, ZHANG Xin-ping
    2015, (08):  1305-1314.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508007
    Abstract ( 688 )   PDF (4275KB) ( 30 )   Save
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    Trend and interannual variability of growing season vegetation cover were examined for the Dongting Lake Watershed over the period of 1982-2010, using GIMMS 3g together with other AVHRR NDVI products and MODIS vegetation index products. The four datasets of AVHRR showed a great similarity in spatial distribution of NDVI trends from 1982 to 1999, while comparison of MODIS EVI/NDVI and GIMMS 3 g during 2000-2010 showed a significant difference in NDVI trends between MODIS NDVI and GIMMS 3g. This is likely owing to MODIS NDVI saturation in the study area. Spatial distribution of trends resulting from GIMMS 3 g and MODIS EVI had some consistency. Thus GIMMS 3 g was selected for detailed analysis because of its long temporal coverage and consistency with other products. Possible influencing factors (precipitation, temperature, sunshine hours and vegetation cover) leading to interannual variations of growing season NDVI were explored using multiple linear regression and correlation analysis. The results indicate that an increasing NDVI trend occurred in the study area during the past 29 years, only 9.5% pixels in the Dongting Lake Watershed showed some NDVI reduction. The eastern, western and southern parts of the region covered by mountain forests experienced a large decreased in NDVI during 1998-2000. De-trended NDVI monthly anomaly was significantly correlated with de-trended concurrent precipitation anomaly, concurrent sunshine duration and cumulative three-month temperature anomaly. The three climate factors explained 37% temporal variability of de-trended growing season monthly NDVI of the study watershed, while these factors failed to explain the overall NDVI increase during 1982-2010. This suggests that the increase in NDVI is more likely associated with an increase in vegetation cover over the period likely owing to the improvement of social-economic condition in the study area. This is supported by good correlation between the NDVI trend and the government reported forest cover change, and consistent spatial distribution of growing season NDVI with that of actual forest cover in this watershed. Therefore, growing season NDVI can be used as an indicator for forest coverage changes in the Dongting Lake Watershed.
    ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL-TEMPORAL VARIATIONS IN THE MAIN FLOOD SEASON AND THEIR INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE DONGTING LAKE BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE DATA
    SHAO Jia-li, ZHENG Wei, LIU Cheng
    2015, (08):  1315-1321.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508008
    Abstract ( 720 )   PDF (1254KB) ( 13 )   Save
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    The study on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the water in this lake and their influence factors is useful to research the climate events and the balance of sediment transport in this region. In this paper, based on the long-time meteorological satellite remote sensing data from 1989 to 2011, Dongting lake water areas were extracted using the comprehensive methods during the main flood season from June to September. The water area results were compared to the water information extracted by the remote sensing data with high spatial resolution, which showed that the accuracy reached more than 90%. The frequency map of Dongting Lake during the flood season from 1989 to 2011 year was made. This map could reflect the spatial and temporal characteristics of water distribution and could be used to assess the flood risk in the Dongting Lake region. Based on the long-time water area information, the relationship of average annual runoff amount into the lake and the Dongting lake water area was researched. The results showed that, from 1989 to2011, the largest and mean maximum of water area occurred in July and August of every year. The correlation coefficient of the lake's water area and average annual runoff amount into the lake was 0.67 from 2003 to 2011. In 2003, the Three Gorges Reservoir started to operate. Dongting Lake water area's fluctuation was large before the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir. But, since after 2003 years, the Dongting Lake area fluctuation reduced significantly. Furthermore, utilizing the NCEP data, the average monthly total precipitations over the lake and over the basin were calculated, respectively. The relationships of the average monthly total precipitation over the lake, monthly total precipitation of basin and the water area were studied. The average monthly total precipitation over the lake showed significant positive correlation relationship with the lake water area. The correlation coefficient was 0.68. Before the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the correlation coefficient of the average monthly total precipitation of the basin and lake water area was 0.50 in the main flood season. But, the correlation was weakened after 2003, which may be affected by artificial regulation. We also selected the two typical years of 1996 and 1998 to analyze their difference based the average monthly total precipitation over the lake and over the basin, which showed that the difference of precipitation over the lake and over the basin may result in the big difference of water spatial distribution. These research results were valuable to the drought and flood disaster analysis.
    ACCURACY ASSESSMENT FOR TRMM IN THE POYANG LAKE BASIN
    FEI Ming-zhe, ZHANG Zeng-xin, YUAN Li-feng, WANG Yan-xin, ZHOU Yang
    2015, (08):  1322-1330.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508009
    Abstract ( 934 )   PDF (2262KB) ( 11 )   Save
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    Precipitation measurement offers fundamental information in understanding the energy flow and water cycle, which is also crucial to hydrology and water resources management. However, the precipitation measurement varies in space and time, and its accuracy becomes the toughest and vital problem. This study is carried out to estimate the precipitation accuracy of the TRMM 3B42 V6 and V7,the two versions of products in the Poyang Lake Basin, and to find out the unique advantages of V7 compared to V6, and address the prospect of application of TRMM satellite data in humid southern China. The precipitation products of V6 and V7 are picked up to evaluate accuracy with the 2003~2010 observation data andh employs statistics knowledge to quantitative analyse estimation accuracy. The results show: 1) At the year scale, both versions generally match well the actual annual precipitation in all basins. The bias of products are under 10%, especially in Raohe and Fuhe basins, where the TRMM and observed precipitation are almost identical, with the bias under 5%. However, the accuracy of V6 and V7 turns to degrade with finer temporal scale, which is more apparent in V6. The correlation coefficients of V7 is above 0.7 seasonally and monthly, which is about 0.1 higher than V6; it turns out to prove that the correlation between V7 and observed is better. What's more, the accuracy assessment is higher in the wet and warm season such as summer and autumn, but it turns to reduce with the precipitation and temperature drops, the V6 product overestimates the precipitation in summer and underestimates the precipitation in winter, which does not appear in V7 product; daily, the fitted curve of V7 matches actual precipitation curve better than V6, and V7 has better qualities in prediction of precipitation grade. 2) Both the V6 and V7 satellite data shows a precipitation pattern that is higher in the South and West and lower in the North and East in Poyang Lake Basin, which is consistent with the real situation of the precipitation for the whole eight years. The differences between TRMM and observed precipitation became large in Xiushui Basin and Poyang lake,, probably caused by terrain and the large water area; what's more, the month data can precisely reflect the changing trends of precipitation in the five major sub basins, the performance of V7 is better with fewer bias; but the bias of the V6 and V7 are both larger in Xiushui Basin than other Basins, and the correlation coefficient in the part of Gannan area is relatively low. It has been a great improvement for V7 product in total Poyang Lake Basin, especially in those two areas, but the problem still persists. The complex and high terrain of those two areas can interfere the satellite signal, which reduces the accuracy of observation. Overall, V7 product has a greater improvement than V6 product in the estimation accuracy of precipitation spatially and temporally in Poyang Lake basin, which has higher accuracy in humid southern China such as the Poyang Lake basin. V7 provides better understand in the complex hydrological process and a promising future.
    EVALUATION ON THE INTENSIVE USE OF RURAL CONSTRUCTION BASED ON GRAY RELATIVE ANALYSIS METHOD AND PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS
    CHEN Hui-guang, XIA Hong, XIAO Yi, LI Wei-wei
    2015, (08):  1331-1336.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508010
    Abstract ( 684 )   PDF (709KB) ( 12 )   Save
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    In order to measure the level of rural construction land intensive use, this paper constructed a set of evaluation indexes, based on the concept content of rural construction land intensive use. The evaluation index system takes different land uses into consideration, and thus combines with objectives to use intensively rural construction land, and also explores driving mechanism of intensive use degree of rural construction land. The data resource is from a social investigation in Jiangsu Province in 2013, which selected two counties or cities separately from the southern, the middle, and the northern of Jiangsu. We designed the questionnaire and finished 474 questionnaires in 12 administrative villages, which are made up of one suburb village and one outer suburb village per county or city. The methods of gray relative analysis and principal component analysis are employed to determine the intensive use degrees for the rural lands of 12 administrative villages. The results showed that regional differences are very significant, i.e. the intensive use degree of rural construction land is higher in south of Jiangsu province rural than in the other two regions, and it is relatively lower in the north of Jiangsu than in the middle of Jiangsu Province. The results are in accordance with the development level of regional economy of Jiangsu Province. On the other hand, from the perspective of spatial distribution of village location, the measures of the two methods are almost the same for the suburban village and outer suburbs village's order in intensive land use for rural construction, and the trend shows that the intensive degrees of suburban rural collective construction land use are higher than the outer suburbs. In general, although differenent results of index factors were obtained, the two methods have high similarities, and a little difference in the spatial distribution. Not only the distribution characteristics of the suburban village and outer suburbs village, but also the regional regularity among 3 parts of Jiangsu in intensive use degree of rural construction land, is of great significance to the policy implication for regional economic development.
    MOUNTAIN RESOURCE PROTECTION ZONATION AND COUNTERMEASURES IN JIANGSU PROVINCE
    HUANG Jing-jun, ZHAO Li-hong, MIAO Shi-xian, ZHANG Li
    2015, (08):  1337-1344.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508011
    Abstract ( 715 )   PDF (820KB) ( 16 )   Save
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    Mountain resource is an important geographic space which is the superposition of the space resource, biological resource, water resource, landscape resource and mineral resource. Furthermore, mountain resource is one that can support regional economy and the sustainable development of society. Therefore, delimiting the mountain resource protection area reasonably has great significance to improve the ecological environment. In this paper, mountain resource is summarized as the natural landscape and human landscape, a combination different from plain. Based on principles of regional continuity, internal identity, concept consistency, public cognition and regional scarcity, the spatial distribution characteristics of 1 154 mountains in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. On the basis of these research results, taking the nature and society attributes of the mountain resource into consideration, an evaluation index system of delimiting the mountain resource protection area in Jiangsu was established. This system is composed of 3 target layers, 6 constraint layers, and 11-index layers. Under the support of MAPGIS technique, a comprehensive index model was used to algebraic superpose each indicator on the space which is according to the weight. As a result, 182 mountains are divided into the mountain resource natural protection red line area, along with214 mountains as yellow line area, 293 mountains as green line area, and 464 mountains as suitable development area. Finally, some mountain resource protection countermeasures were proposed, such as compiling the mountain resource protection plan, assessing the mountain resource protection value, dynamic monitoring of the mountain resource and so on.
    DIVERSITY AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF VEGETATION FROM THE WATER-LEVEL FLUCTUATION ZONE OF THE XIANGXI RIVER IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA
    XU Jian-xia, PENG Gang-zhi, WANG Jian-zhu
    2015, (08):  1345-1350.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508012
    Abstract ( 792 )   PDF (919KB) ( 14 )   Save
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    Vegetations at different elevations from the water-level fluctuation zone (WLFZ) of Xiangxi River in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area were collected with quadrat sampling method to assess species composition, community diversity and spatial distribution characteristics 10 years after the TGR impoundment in 2003. The objectives of this study were to provide scientific basis on species selection and plant community reconstruction in ecological restoration of WLFZ in TGR area. The results show that: (1) the main plant types in the study area were annual herbs, species composition was relatively simple. The spatial distribution of all the dominant populations belongs to the type of aggregated distribution; (2) As the elevation increased, most of the α and β diversity indexes i.e., Patrick richness, Shannon-wiener diversity, and Pielou evenness tended to increase, while the other α diversity indexes including Simpson diversity decreased. Among the β diversity indexes, Cody index, Wilson Shmida index, Jaccard index and Sorenson index all showed an increasing trend; (3) Cynodon dactylon, Digitaria Sanguinalis, Setaria viridis and Cyperus rotundus are recommended as alternative herbaceous species to be used in plant community reconstruction in the ecological restoration of the WLFZ of Xiangxi River in the TGR area.
    HYDROGEOCHEMICAL FEATURE OF THERMAL GROUNDWATER IN CARBONATE RESERVOIR IN TRIASSIC IN CHONGQING
    XIAO Qiong, WANG Peng, WU Kun-yu
    2015, (08):  1351-1357.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508013
    Abstract ( 435 )   PDF (1129KB) ( 11 )   Save
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    Study on the hydrogeochemical features of thermal groundwater is conducive to the exploitation of underground thermal water. Researches on the thermal groundwater in carbonate Reservoir in Triassic in Chongqing are expected to benefit Chongqing as the "Hot spring capital of the world" to achieving sustainable development of geothermal. In this study, samples of the thermal groundwater in carbonate reservoir in Triassic in Chongqing were obtained and tested in January and July in 2009. It was found that all the thermal water have similar features, such as being neutral in pH, with temperature ranging among 30℃ to 50℃, with high Electrical Conductivity (EC). These underground thermal water were defined as SO4-Ca (Mg) type, which were identified to low-medium temperature geothermal water in carbonate reservoir. The major cations of these thermal water were Ca2+ and Mg2+ and the major anions were SO42- and HCO3-. The concentration of SO42-, Ca2+, and Mg2+ varied slightly with time but significantly among places, with an exception of two springs in Qingmuguan. These indicated that the hydrogeochemical properties of thermal groundwater in the study area are mainly controlled by the water-rock interaction, a process of water interaction with gypsum in carbonate rock. The calcite and dolomite of the underground thermal water are under the critical state of saturated to unsaturated, and there is no obvious phenomenon of travertine deposition. The Na-K-Mg-Ca diagram shows that the sources of the matters in thermal water in Carbonate Reservoir in Triassic in Chongqing are basically the same in each season and haven't reached the water-rock equilibrium.
    RESOURCES STATUS OF ICHTHYOPLANKTON IN THE UPPER YANGTZE RIVER BEFORE THE STORAGE OF JINSHA RIVER FIRST STAGE PROJECT
    DUAN Xin-bin, TIAN Hui-wu, GAO Tian-heng, LIU Shao-ping, WANG Ke, CHEN Da-qing
    2015, (08):  1358-1365.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508014
    Abstract ( 839 )   PDF (913KB) ( 15 )   Save
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    The surveys of Ichthyoplankton resources were carried out in Jiangjin section of the upper Yangtze River from May to July in 2010, 2011 and 2012. The results showed that there were 21 species of fish with drifting eggs, some of which were endemic species in the upper Yangtze River, such as Leptobotia elongate, Leptobotia rubrilabris, Jinshaia sinensis, Rhinogobio ventralis, Rhinogobio cylindricus and Gobiobotia boulengeri. The total egg quantity in 2010, 2011, and 2012 was 32.42×108 Ind., 46.72×108 Ind., and 39.71×108 Ind. respectively. Among them, the egg quantity of four major Chinese carps was 3.21×108 ind, 4.52×108 ind, and 2.69×108 ind, respectively, the egg quantity of Coreius heterokon was 1.45×108 ind, 3.33×108 ind and 3.87×108 ind, respectively, and the egg quantity of Leptobotia elongate was 0.29×108 ind, 0.99×108 ind, and 0.58×108 ind, respectively. The main spawning season lasted from the end of May to the beginning of July. Significant correlations were found between the daily variation of eggs with runoff and water temperature. The spawning activities occurred intensively when daily variation of water level was higher than 0.24 m/d. The main spawning grounds were estimated at Rongshan, Hejiang and Mituo reaches of upper Yangtze River. The propagation of fish may be affected after the Storage of Jinsha River First Stage Project.
    STUDY ON WATER CONSERVATION FUNCTION OF TYPICAL FOREST VEGETATION IN YUNNAN PLATEAU
    SHI Xiao, ZHANG Ying, SHAN Yong, DUAN Wei
    2015, (08):  1366-1372.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508015
    Abstract ( 550 )   PDF (778KB) ( 10 )   Save
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    Forest vegetation has various service functions, such as climate regulation, soil conservation, and nutrients accumulation, species conservation and water conservation. One of the most intuitive functions of forest vegetation was water conservation. Studies showed that various types of forest vegetation differed in their ability of water conservation. It has been receiving more attention due to the worsening global water environment and increasing human demand on water. Remote sensing images and meteorological data make it possible to accurately measure annual precipitation and evaporation of forest ecological system with the rapid development of geographic information system technology. All of these make the water balance method with a higher credibility than other methods to estimate physical quantity of forest water conservation. Three kinds of typical forest vegetation in Yunnan Plateau were selected as the research objects. By using the principle of water balance to study canopy interception, litter and soil water storage capacity of three kinds of forest vegetation. The results showed that the soil water storage was the main way of forest water conservation functions. According to the canopy intercept quantity and capture rate metrics about various of vegetation, the order of canopy intercepting water capacity is as follows: Pinus densata(209.87 t/hm2, 28.87%)>Betula platyphylla Suk.(194.17 t/hm2, 19.82%)>Quercus aquifolioides(111.78 t/hm2, 16.32%)Litter water-holding capacity included two aspects: maximizing water holding capacity and the water holdup. The order of maximum water holding capacity on litter is as follows: Pinus densata(35.79 t/hm2)>Betula platyphylla Suk.(24.52 t/hm2)>Quercus aquifolioides(18.49 t/hm2).The order of water holdup on litter was Quercus aquifolioides(177.42%)>Betula platyphylla Suk.(152.08%)>Pinus densata(138.48%).The order of soil water storage capacity was Quercus aquifolioides(673.19 t/hm2/a)>Pinus densata(610 t/hm2/a)>Betula platyphylla Suk.(549.84 t/hm2/a).The order of water conservation capacity is as follows: Pinus densata(855.66 t/hm2)>Quercus aquifolioides(803.46 t/hm2)>Betula platyphylla Suk.(768.53 t/hm2)in the same forest per unit area. The study on water conservation functions of typical forest vegetation in Yunnan plateau not only provides the guidance basis for the local forest management and production, but also ensure the water security of nature reserve and even in Yunnan Province. It is of very important significance under the background of climate change. Study forms the foundation to benefit accounting and management of forest ecological in the future. In addition, the research has scientific guiding significance for strategy adapt to climate change.
    STUDY ON ALLOCATION OF WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CAPACITIES AND WATER QUALITY CONTROLLABLE TARGET IN WESTERN TAIHU BASIN
    HU Kai-ming, FAN En-zhuo
    2015, (08):  1373-1380.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508016
    Abstract ( 639 )   PDF (2184KB) ( 15 )   Save
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    Water pollution is a serious problem in the Taihu Basin. The key problems for water environment improvement in the future are as follows: (1) the total amount of pollutants into the lake remarkably exceeds the water environmental capacity of the lake, (2) there remains a high Cyanobacteria biomass in the lake, and (3) the industrial structure transition and upgrading along the lake are very slow-moving. As industry and population increase rapidly, the pollution of water environment has been a main factor influencing the sustainability of economic development in the Western Taihu Basin. Water environmental problems of main inflowing rivers were analyzed according to the monitoring data of 2010. Through the investigation on the distribution of the industry pollution source, urban and rural sewage source, agricultural and breeding pollution source in studied region, total amount of pollutant drainage into the rivers was calculated. After 2007, the State Council ratified Master Plan of Integrated Regulation of Water Environment of Taihu Basin and Water Function Zoning of Taihu Basin, embarking the comprehensive treatment of water environment in the basin. In this context, water quantity and quality model have been established to predict regional water environmental capacities. Based on the water function and water areas, the water environmental capacities were assigned to every county or district. After the implementation of the existing and planned engineering measures, a spatial and temporal reduction rates for pollution load and a controllable target were proposed. The results indicate that the water quality in the Taihu Lake was worse than Grade V, aand was mainly influenced by TN, and the index could only reach Grade IV in rivers and influenced mainly by NH3-N. The western Taihu Basin has a total pollution load of 25 410.2t/a COD, 2 795.4 t/a NH3-N, 4 646.4 t/a TN, and 313.8 t/a TP. The urban sewage source has the largest pollution load contribution with the proportion of 35%~50%. The pollution load in Yixing and Wujin were bigger than the other two. Forecasted pollution discharge into river for most of the water exceeds the water environment capacity. Recently, reduction rate of COD, NH3-N, TN and TP are 8.0%~56.0%, 8.0%~62.1%, 6.0%~41.8%, 8.0%~59.9%, respectively, and are expected to be higher in future. Using the simulation result of the model, an average COD, NH3-N, TN and TP value of 4.50, 0.80, 3.50 and 0.08 mg/L are proposed as the water quality controllable target for 2015 in the western Taihu Lake, furthermore, the value achieves to 4.50, 0.60, 3.00 and 0.07 mg/L in 2020. The study provides the technical support and the scientific basis to water pollution control in western Taihu Lake.
    DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE ANNUAL LOAD OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION——A CASE STUDY IN ZHENJIANG ANCIENT CANAL
    ZHOU Ming-tao, HU Xu-dong, ZHANG Shou-de, GAO Jia-zhen
    2015, (08):  1381-1386.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508017
    Abstract ( 448 )   PDF (750KB) ( 12 )   Save
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    With the pace of urban modernization, non-point source pollution is becoming increasingly serious to the urban rivers. According to the survey data, the concentrations of total phosphorus (TP), ammonium (NH3-N) and suspended solids (SS) in Zhenjiang Ancient Canal were higher than the national standard. As a result, the water quality of the Ancient Canal has been seriously polluted, therefore it's urgent for us to take measures to monitor the water quality and build model to analyze the water quality of the Ancient Canal. Based on the monitoring data of rainfall, the content of contaminants in rainfall runoff in Zhenjiang Ancient Canal from 2009 to 2013, we established a regression equation between rainfall and runoff pollution, and then applied the Grey theory to predict future rainfall. Grey theory is the essential to make the irregular data variations into the regular data, through the way of accumulation, subtraction and so on to process, then using the differential equation fitting, and predict the future data by extension. What's more, the known original data is called white, the prediction data is called gray, and process is called bleaching or weakening of the randomness of the data sequence. The results reveal that the annual loads of TP, NH3-N of rainfall runoff pollutants are expected to change with the rainfall in the canal, and the concentration of TP, NH3-N and SS will change similarly from 2014 to 2020; when the rainfall reaches 1 381.2 mm in 2020, the annual load of TP, NH3-N and SS will reach 217.15 t, 421.4 t, and 5 811.87 t, respectively and the concentrations of contaminants in rainfall runoff will be very large. Therefore, we should make green, clear the rubbish, take measures of the slope protection and a series of measures on both sides of the Ancient Canal to reduce the non-point source pollution produced by rain runoff, and then we can achieve good water quality of the river after taking action. Furthermore, the comfortable environment can provide a better life for the local people. Grey theory can weaken the fluctuation data sequence. regression analysis can establish the quantitative relationship to depend on each other between multiple variables. This paper combined the grey theory with regression analysis to propose the way to predict the load of rainfall runoff non-point source pollution, which can precisely forecasting the load of rainfall runoff non-point source pollution simply and effectively under the conditions of small sample, poor information and fluctuation data, and has great significance to promote.
    HEALTH ASSESSMENT OF RIPARIAN WETLAND ECOSYSTEM OF LAKE LIANGZIHU BY VEGETATION INDEX OF BIOLOGICAL INTEGRITY
    XIE Chu-fang, SHU Tong, LIU Yi, REN Wen-bin, JIANG Jin-hui, YANG Shao
    2015, (08):  1387-1394.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508018
    Abstract ( 715 )   PDF (1105KB) ( 30 )   Save
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    Biological integrity is the ability of an aquatic ecosystem to support and maintain a balanced, integrated, adaptive assemblage of organisms having a species composition, diversity, and functional organization comparable to that of natural habitats within a region. Vegetation with the advantages including ease of identification and immobility is the key feature of wetland ecosystem and can be used to assess the health status of the wetland ecosystem. Lake Liangzihu, as the Wetland Nature Reserve of Hubei Province, plays an important role in biodiversity protection by offering habitat for waterbirds, macrophytes and fish. To evaluate the health status of the riparian wetland of Lake Liangzihu, a vegetation index of biotic integrity (VIBI) was developed from data collected by vegetation survey. To establish the VIBI calculation, 21 candidate vegetation metrics based on species richness and composition, vegetation abundance, ecological affinity, and species tolerance were tested for their ability to discriminate between impaired and least-impaired habitat conditions. Seven discriminatory metrics, Number of emergent species, Number of perennial species, Percent exotic species, Shannon-weaver diversity index, Floristic Quality Assessment Index(FQAI), Percent tolerant plant species and Percent intolerant plant species, were finally selected with a range test, box-and-whisker analysis and Pearson correlation analysis. We then assigned scores for each metric based on the statistical analysis by using three scoring method, andthe scoring criteria were based on the distribution of the metrics' values across all sites. The total VIBI score was obtained by summing the scores from the 7 metrics, resulting in a maximum score of 35. The criteria of health ranking were finally determined based on the 25% percentile of VIBI value in reference sites. Four quality classes (Good, Fair, Poor, and Very poor) of the health status were defined. The results of vegetation survey showed that there were 182 plant species belonging to 52 families and 128 genera in Lake Liangzihu, including 147 hygrophytes, 20 emergent macrophytes, 6 floating-leaved plants, 9 submerged macrophytes, respectively. The dominant plant species were Conyza Canadensis, Cynodon dactylon, Carex argyi, Echinochloa crusgalli, Juncus effuses, Zizania caduciflora, Typha orientalis and Trapa bispinosa. The dominant association were Trapa bispinosa Ass., Vallisneria natans-Trapa bispinosa-Nymphoides indica Ass., Phragmites australis-Zizania caduciflora Ass. and Vallisneria natans-Najas minor-Hydrilla verticillata Ass. The results indicated that in the 22 sampling sites we have investigated, only 3 and 6 were in good and fair, respectively, totally covering a percentage of 41%, while 59% of which were not satisfactory. In general, the health status of eastern Liangzi Lake, Niushan Lake, Shanpo Lake and northern part of Qianjiang Lake were good, Zhangqiao Lake were in poor, and the six worse sites were along the coast of Ninggang Lake and southern Qianjiang Lake. The main factors affecting the biological integrity of vegetation were sediments and human activities such as water level regulation, enclosure aquaculture and grazing.
    EUTROPHICATION ASSESSMENT AND ESTIMATION OF WATER ENVIRONMENTAL CAPACITY IN LAKE XIANNV OF JIANGXI
    ZHANG Meng, ZHU Guo-rong, ZHOU Min, LI Hui-min, LU You-wei, LIU Zu-gen
    2015, (08):  1395-1404.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508019
    Abstract ( 925 )   PDF (1604KB) ( 16 )   Save
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    Lake/reservoir eutrophication has become a more and more serious problem. Watershed pollution prevention is the key of eutrophication control. Calculation of water environmental capacity is the important basis of both the pollution prevention and the capacity distribution in the basin. This study is aimed to assess the eutrophic status and estimate the environmental capacity of the Lake Xiannv in Jiangxi Province, a lake with good water quality, in order to provide the reference for the aquatic environmental protection and capacity gross control of main pollutants in this important ecological function zone. From the year of 2011 to 2013, seasonal monitoring of physical and chemical parameters in Lake Xiannv was carried out and parameters included total nitrogen (TN), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total phosphorous (TP), transparency (SD), chemical oxygen demand (CODMn) and chlorophyll a (chl_a). Samples were collected at 4 sites, located in the upper lake-Qianyang Lake (S1-S2) and the lower lake-Wulong Lake (S3-S4), respectively. A comprehensive eutrophic state index was applied to assess the trophic status, and the Vollenweider-Dillon model was employed to analyze the nutrient loading and assimilation capacity of Lake Xiannv. COD, ammonia, TN and TP were used as the control index in calculation of the water environment capacity. Results showed that the water quality of Lake Xiannv could meet Level Ⅱ-Ⅲ standards of water quality for surface water. The mean values (range in parentheses) for TN, TP, NH3-N, CODMn and chl_a were 0.59 mg/L (0.32-0.91 mg/L), 0.028 mg/L (0.017-0.080 mg/L), 0.31 mg /L (0.012-0.59 mg/L), 2.85 mg/L (1.61-5.59 mg/L) and 0.56 μg/L (0.37-0.95 μg/L), respectively. The water quality tended to improve from the upper lake zone to the lower one of the lake. TP was in the status of Level Ⅲ standards in some months, whereas the other indicators were steadily in Level Ⅱ standards. In general, Lake Xiannv was mesotrophic, with higher nutrient levels in the Qianyang Lake area, and the Secchi depth was in the highest trophic state (slightly eutrophic) by the analysis of the single factor index. Loading of COD, ammonia, TN and TP in Lake Xiannv were 21 208.0 t/a, 3 528.8 t/a, 4 991.2 t/a and 248.1 t/a, respectively. The ratio of the remaining capacity of these four pollutants were 56.88%, 68.25%, 62.89% and 13.67%, respectively. TP was selected out as the greatest impact factor on water environmental capacity of the lake. Nutrient loading should be reduced by 72% for phosphorus to achieve water quality meeting Level II standards throughout Lake Xiannv. In this study, the main factors influenced on water environment carrying capacity were analyzed, as well as the variation tendency of water quality and how to improve the water quality of the lake. Based on the analysis of the main influence factors on water environmental capacity, the constructive scheme was proposed for improving water environment carrying capacity in the end.
    STUDY OF ECOLOGICAL RED-LINE ZONES IN GUIZHOU CHISHUI RIVER BASIN
    YANG Shi-fan, AN Yu-lun, WANG Pei-bin, MA Liang-rui, HU Feng, SUN Quan-zhong
    2015, (08):  1405-1411.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508020
    Abstract ( 742 )   PDF (1726KB) ( 34 )   Save
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    The ecological environment is the essential requirement for living of human beings. In the recent years, the extensive mode of development at the expense of the environment leaded to the ecological environment worsening and seriously harmed the sustainable development and the countrys ecological security. Under these circumstances, the country put forward the ecological red-line, which is an insurmountable bottom line. With the aim to keep the balance of ecology and the need of sustainable development, to draw the ecological red-line of fragile and important ecological zone is the priority of environmental protection in China. Guizhou Chishui River Basin has its special geographical environment and is the production place of famous white spirit "Maotai". It has also national nature reserves. It plays an important role in special water resources, soil conservation and species diversity. This study was carried out based on the ecological red-line analysis of theory and methodology and chose the Chishui River as the study case to evaluate the sensitivity of karst rocky desertification and soil erosion, the importance of soil conservation, water conservation, and species diversity, and to find the most sensitive ecological zone and most important ecological function zone. An overlay analysis of development prohibition zone of spirit production in Chishui River and water conservation zone of Maotai was also carried out and the boundary of ecological red-line was determined in the end. The major results are as followed:There are 9 kinds of ecological red-line, being 5 030.58 km2 in area, accounting for 44.16% of the total. There are many overlapping red-line zones in Chishui City and the important ecological function zone represents a significant share due to the special features of geography. The red line areas are mainly distributed in national nature reserve of Chishui City and Xishui County. Furthermore, with the consideration of local ecological environment and human activities in the comprehensive characteristics and the objective demand of the development, we also offer some suggestions for the management of ecological red-line zones in the Chishui River. First, adhere to the principle of the priority of special water resource conservation and pay equal attention to ecological protection and construction, combined with classification management and integrated management. Second, restrict access of industrial development and establish the mechanism of ecological compensation. Third, arrange reasonabl land use in red-line zones, carry out agricultural production without affecting the quality of ecological environment, and build a friendly way of land use. Forth, take the path of sustainable development to realize healthy and coordinated development of regional economic and environmental.
    CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SURFACE OZONE AT SHANGRI-LA REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC BACKGROUND STATION
    LI Zou, LIN Wei-li, XU Xiao-bin, ZHANG Wan-cheng
    2015, (08):  1412-1417.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508021
    Abstract ( 536 )   PDF (2555KB) ( 10 )   Save
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    The observation results of the surface ozone (O3) at Shangri-la regional atmospheric background station in 2009 were studied and the concentration level, the seasonal and diurnal variation, the affecting factors and the regional representativeness were presented. The monthly O3 at the station varied from 21.8 ppb to 57.7 ppb. The yearly average value was 38.0±12.1 ppb, with a peak value in spring (54.1 ppb) and a valley value in summer (28.0 ppb). The hours with the hourly concentration larger than 60 ppb and larger than 40 ppb accounted for 6.6% and 43.0% of the total observation hours, respectively. When compared with the observation results at the two regional atmospheric background stations with a similar latitude located in the eastern China, it showed a different diurnal and seasonal variation pattern of O3 at Shangri-la station, reflecting a unique ecosystem and environmental conditions surrounded. The airflow influencing the station is mainly from the southwest direction, which can be from as far as the northeast area in Bay of Bengal under a 3-days moving trajectory. The airflow coming from the south mainly occurred in summer-autumn period with a relatively lower ozone concentration and the airflow coming from the north mainly occurred in winter-spring period with a relatively higher ozone values.
    REGIONAL FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON SCENARIO ANALYSIS——A CASE STUDY OF CHAOHU BASIN
    CHENG Xian-fu, DAI Meng-qin, HAO Dan-dan, WU Qing-shuang
    2015, (08):  1418-1424.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508022
    Abstract ( 741 )   PDF (2117KB) ( 12 )   Save
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    Flood disaster is one of the main factors restricting regional food security and social sustainable development. The Chaohu Basin is suffering from frequent and severe floods. Floods often take place around rivers and plains, which indicates a higher risk of flooding in these areas. A lot of studies have been done in the field of flood disaster, including flood risk assessment. Methods of flood risk assessment mainly include probability statistics from the historical disaster data, hydrologic and hydraulic models and flood simulation, geo-spatial information technology, the index system, scenarios drivers as well as mathematical method. Based on risk identification, evaluation index is selected and evaluation index system is established from hazard factors, disaster environment and hazard bearing body in this paper. Evaluation indicators are mainly precipitation, terrain, river, flood, land use, population, GDP etc. Evaluation index weights are determined by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Using the Pearson-Ⅲ model, Marko-CA model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools, flood risk complex scenarios are proposed and presented from different return period precipitation, land use, population and GDP. Based on GIS spatial analysis technology, the analytic hierarchy process and spatial raster data, flood disaster risk assessment model is constructed to evaluate the flood risk in the Chaohu Basin. The results show that flood hazard distribution pattern is reduced from southeast to northwest. The plain area along the Yangtze River of the southeastern basin has the maximum risk. The vulnerability of flood is greater with greater return period. Economic vulnerability of Hefei City is the biggest, followed by Wuwei County but the He Countys vulnerability is smaller. The 30-year flood risk has a maximum of 4.37, the 50-year flood risk has a maximum of 4.49, and the 100-year flood risk maximum value is 4.65. The risk of flood disaster becomes greater with greater return period. Flood risk reduces from southeast to northwest in Chaohu basin in 2020. High risk is in southeast of the Chaohu Basin, and low risk areas are mainly distributed in Dabieshan mountain of southwest of the Chaohu Basin. With the increase of return period, flood disaster risk gradually increases. Through a comprehensive analysis on the influencing factors of flood disasters in the Chaohu Basin, the main causes underlying the flood disaster change is explored. Simulating disaster scenario and analyzing flood risk under different scenarios can reflect flood uncertainty and variability. It also can provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of flood prevention and mitigation designs.
    JOINT DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXTREME RAINFALL AND FLOOD FOR THE UPPER-MIDDLE REACHES OF THE HANJIANG RIVER BASED ON COPULA FUNCTION
    CHEN Xin-chi, ZHANG Li-ping, SHAN Li-jie, YANG Wei, XU Xia
    2015, (08):  1425-1433.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508023
    Abstract ( 742 )   PDF (1501KB) ( 24 )   Save
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    The upper-middle reaches of Hanjiang River is chosen to be the research object in this paper, based on the daily precipitation data of 9 meteorological stations in River and the daily runoff data of Danjiangkou reservoir from 1969 to 2008. The maximum 1 day extreme samples and 3 days extreme samples of rainfall and flood were selected by the Annual Maximum (AM) and percentile method. Then these samples are marginal distribution fitted for the single variable to extreme value statistical models respectively, which are named as Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Gamma distribution. After this, the most suitable distribution model for specific sampling method can be found out from the comparison results of model testing, and it will be a priority selection and verification for the corresponding sampling method in the later work. After the above process, the samples are joint distribution fitted for multivariate to Gumbel Copula function model, Clayton Copula function model and Frank Copula function model, respectively. It contains two-dimensional conjoint distribution and three-dimensional conjoint distribution, finally the optimal probability model which describes joint distribution of rainfall and flood in the basin will be selected. After calculation and analysis, the result showed that: for AM samples, no matter two-dimensional or three-dimensional Copula conjoint distribution, Frank Copula function gives the best fitting result for rainfall and flood when using GEV distribution as marginal distribution; for percentile samples, Gumbel Copula function gives the best fitting results for two-dimension joint distribution and Frank Copula function gives the best for three-dimension joint distribution, both are used the GPD distribution as the marginal distribution. What's more, the design value which is estimated by three-dimensional Copula function is greater than that is from two-dimensional Copula function after comparison of their simulation results. It means that three-dimensional joint distribution takes more variable and extreme information into account, and it can reflect the true feature of extreme rainfall and flood more accurate and more comprehensive, so choosing the three-dimensional joint distribution will be more suitable and safer for engineering design.
    CHARACTERISTICS AND EVOLUTION OF DEBRIS FLOW MOTION IN JIANGJIA GULLY IN YUNNAN PROVINCE
    HUANG Ying, DING Ming-tao, MIAO Cheng, WANG Jun, ZHOU Peng
    2015, (08):  1434-1442.  doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201508024
    Abstract ( 645 )   PDF (1512KB) ( 11 )   Save
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    Based on the 1965-2005 observation data of Jiangjia Gully and the 1965-2005 daily precipitation data of Huize County in Yunnan Province, several movement elements of debris flow were detailed analyzed such as discharge, bulk density, sediment discharge and its development. Based on the Hurst index method, the Hurst index of debris flow sediment discharge was calculated to be 0.682, showing a strong positive sustainability and strong growth in future. The rainfall Hurst index was 0.605, showing a weaker growth trend in the future. At the same time, with the wavelet analysis method, annual sediment discharge was found to had several time dimensions of periods: 8 years, 14 years, and 24 years was the first three main cycles. Annual sediment discharge would decrease and the debris flow activity would be weaker in the coming 15 years. Within 15 years, the debris flow activity would have a shorter increase and the debris flow activity would be strong. Huge scale, strong hazard and different types of Jiangjia Gully debris flows were concluded in the research.
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