RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (07): 1129-1134.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201607015

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QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITY IMPACT ON INFLOW DECREASE OF DANJIANGKOU RESERVOIR

YANG Na1, ZHAO Qiao-hua1, YAN Gui-xia1, HUANG Qin2   

  1. 1. College of Hydrometeorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
    2. College of Hydrology and water resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2015-11-16 Revised:2016-03-02 Online:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    The Study is Financially Supported by University Natural Science Foundation of JiangsuProvince (No. 14KJB170018);National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41401612)

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Abstract: Quantitative evaluation the effects of climate change and human activities on river flow is of great importance for water resource management and utilization. As the water source of China's South-to-North Water Transfer Project in the middle line, Danjiangkou reservoir's function may be severely affected by the decrease of runoff into the reservoir. In this paper, runoff data from 1960 to 2012 and climatic data from 20 meteorological stations of Hanjiang River basin between 1960 and 2012 were used to analyze and compare the changing trends of runoff, precipitation and temperature by using the Mann-Kendall test method and the Pettitt test method, aiming at finding reasons for the decrease of reservoir inflow. Then, the climate elasticity model is adopted to estimate the degree of climate change effect on flow decrease. Our results indicated that climate change was the dominant reason for the inflow decrease in spring and autumn. In spring, climate change accounted for 67% of the decrease of reservoir inflow and human activities accounted for 33%; in autumn, climate change accounted for 88% of inflow decrease and human activities accounted for 12%.

Key words: climate change, climate elasticity model, inflow of Danjiangkou Reservoir, assessment

CLC Number: 

  • P333
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