RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (04): 590-598.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201604008

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CHARACTERISTICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CONTRIBUTION ON RICE YIELD IN JIANGXI —BASED ON THE “CLIMATE-ECONOMY” MODEL

FU Lian-lian1, ZHU Hong-gen2, ZHOU Shu-dong3   

  1. 1. College of ScienceJiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China;
    2. College of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China;
    3. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
  • Received:2015-07-21 Revised:2015-10-27 Online:2016-04-20
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the Major program of National Social Science Foundation of China“Safety of agricultural products,climate warming and transformation of agricultural production” (13&ZD160)、Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71561014,41361007,71461019); Project supported by Jiangxi decsion support for the sus development of modern agriculture and its advabtage indust collaborative innovation center(XDNYA1502)

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Abstract: Climate trend rate and M-K mutation test methods are applied to analyze trends and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jiangxi during 1951~2012. “Climate-economy” model is established to study the effect of climatic factors on rice yield. Finally, BP neural network model is used to predict the contribution of climatic factors to rice yield in the next 10 years. The results showed that temperature increased at a rate of 0.172℃/10a over the past 60 yearsbut linear trend of precipitation was not significant. Mutation of temperature occurred in 1997. Mutation of precipitation was not obvious. There were differences between contribution and direction of climatic factors action at different stages. The contribution of climatic factors was 5.97% during 1978~1997, in which the contribution of temperature and precipitation was 1.51% and 4.46%. The contribution of climatic factors was 8.98% during 1998~2013, in which the contribution of temperature and precipitation was 4.63% and 4.35%. The contribution of material elements was above 70% in different stages, including a large degree of plantings and fertilizer. The contribution of temperature to rice yield in Jiangxi province was 1.48 and the contribution of precipitation was 2.22 over the next 10 years.

Key words: climate change, rice yield, M-K mutation test, “Climate-economy”model, BP neural network model

CLC Number: 

  • P461
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