RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (08): 1273-1278.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201608014

Previous Articles     Next Articles

STUDY ON DROUGHT CLASS PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON THE CLOUD REASONING AND FUZZY LOGIC RELATION MODEL

GONG Yan-bing1,2, DAI Liang-liang1, HU Na1, LIU Gao-feng1,2, ZHANG Ji-guo1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Hydraulic Information Statistic and Management, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China;
    2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China
  • Received:2015-11-25 Revised:2016-01-19 Online:2016-08-20
  • Supported by:
    National Nature Science Foundation of China (No. 71303074);Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. 14GLC004);Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China (No. BK20130242);Fundamental Research Fund for the Central University of China (Nos. 2015B23914, 2015B28014)

PDF (PC)

10

Abstract: For the monthly average precipitation time series having the features of the fuzziness and randomness, a drought class prediction combination method based on the cloud reasoning and fuzzy logic relation are given. By calculating the standardized precipitation index (SPI) of Xuzhou station monthly precipitation data from 1951 to 2014, we get the measured drought grade sequence. We use SPI data from1952 to 2013 as the sample data, and extract 52 fuzzy logic inference rules of the fuzzy time series. The SPI data of a month is used as the input variable, and the cloud generator is used to obtain the forecast result of the drought level in the future. The results show that this method has certain prediction ability for drought occurrence, especially for no drought prediction, which is more accurate. But it is weak for the drought state mutations prediction, mainly due to the possibility of a severe drought is less, resulting in a less fuzzy inference rules. Therefore, it can be used as a reference for early warning of drought in northern Jiangsu Province, which is given priority to the light drought.

Key words: SPI, cloud reasoning, fuzzy logic relation, drought class prediction

CLC Number: 

  • P338
[1] MCKEE T B, DOESKEN N J, KLEIST J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C]//Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology. California: American Meteorological Society, 1993.
[2] 韩萍, 王鹏新, 王彦集, 等. 多尺度标准化降水指数的ARIMA模型干旱预测研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2008, 26(2): 212-218.[HAN P, WANG P X, WANG Y J, et al. Drought forecasting based on the standardized precipitation index at different temporal scales using ARIMA models[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2008, 26(2): 212-218.]
[3] 田苗, 王鹏新, 韩萍, 等. 基于SARIMA模型和条件植被温度指数的干旱预测[J]. 农业机械学报, 2013, 44(2): 109-116.[TIAN M, WANG P X, HAN P, et al. Drought forecasts based on SARIMA models and vegetation temperature condition index[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2013, 44(2): 109-116.]
[4] 王彦集, 刘峻明, 王鹏新, 等. 基于加权马尔可夫模型的标准化降水指数干旱预测研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2007, 25(5): 198-203.[WANG Y J, LIU J M, WANG P X, et al. Prediction of drought occurrence based on the standardized precipitation index and the Markov Chain Model with weights[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2007, 25(5): 198-203.]
[5] 吕小俊, 谢海平, 木绍良. 基于灰色灾变理论的云南省干旱气候预测研究[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2015, 45(1): 164-168.[LV X J, XIE H P, MU S L. Study drought climate in Yunnan province based on gray system theory[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2015, 45(1): 164-168.]
[6] 田苗, 王鹏新, 侯姗姗, 等. 基于相空间重构与RBF神经网络模型的面上干旱预测研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2013, 31(6): 164-168, 180.[TIAN M, WANG P X, HOU S S, et al. Research of regional drought forecasting based on phase space reconstruction and RBF neural network model[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2013, 31(6): 164-168, 180.]
[7] 冯平, 胡荣, 李建柱. 基于三维对数线性模型的气象干旱等级预测研究[J]. 水利学报, 2014, 45(5): 505-512.[FENG P, HU R, LI J Z. Meteorological drought grade prediction using three-dimensional log-linear models[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2014, 45(5): 505-512.]
[8] 胡荣, 冯平, 李一兵. 流域水文干旱等级预测问题的研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2015, 24(2): 147-156.[HU R, FENG P, LI Y B. Study on drought class prediction problem in basin[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2015, 24(2): 147-156.]
[9] 彭高辉, 张振伟, 马建琴. 基于可公度理论的安徽省干旱预测[J]. 水电能源科学, 2012, 30(9): 6-8.[PENG G H, ZHANG Z W, MA J Q. Drought prediction in Anhui province based on commensurability theory[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2012, 30(9): 6-8.]
[10] 李德毅, 杜鹢. 不确定性人工智能[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2005.[LI D Y, DU Y. Artificial intelligence with uncertainty[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2005.]
[11] SONG Q, CHISSOM B S. Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series-part 1[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1993, 54(1): 1-9.
[12] CHEN S M. Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1996, 81(3): 311-319.
[13] 龚艳冰, 张继国. 基于正态云模型和熵权的人口发展现代化程度综合评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2012, 22(1): 138-143.[GONG Y B, ZHANG J G. Comprehensive assessment on population development degree of modernization based on normal cloud model and entropy weight[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2012, 22(1): 138-143.]
[1] LANG Deng-xiao, SHI Jia-qi, ZHENG Jiang-kun, LIAO Feng, MA Xing, WANG Wen-wu, CHEN Yi-fan. SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN SOUTHWESTERN CHINA FROM 1962 TO 2013 [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(06): 945-954.
[2] YANG Xin, CAI Yin-ying, ZHANG An-lu. ESTIMATION OF FARMLAND ECO-COMPENSATION HORIZONTAL TRANSFERRING PAYMENT AMOUNT IN WUHAN METROPOLITAN AREA——FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF SPILLOVER ECOLOGICAL VALUE MEASURED BY CHOICE EXPERIMENT [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(03): 368-375.
[3] ZHAO Ping-wei, GUO Ping, LI Li-yin, SHU Jun. COMPARISON OF SPEI AND SPI INDEX ON ACCOUNT OF THE DROUGHTS OF THE SOUTHWEST YUNNAN AREA [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(01): 142-149.
[4] ZHU Jing-xuan, QI Shu-hua, LIU Gui-hua, WANG Dian, XIONG Meng-ya. SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION OF TERRESTRIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN POYANG LAKE WATERSHED FROM 2001 TO 2013 [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(Z1): 9-16.
[5] GUO Qing-bin, LIU Qi, ZHANG Bing-qian. DOES ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION BARRAGE INTERNATIONAL R&D SPILLOVERS: A CASE STUDY OF THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(12): 1807-1814.
[6] TANG Bao-qi, YAN Jun-ping, LI Shuang-shuang, LIU Yong-lin. EVOLUTION OF SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN EAST CHINA FROM 1960 TO 2014 [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(03): 497-505.
[7] WU Zhi-jie, HE Yun-ling. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION OF DROUGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL YUNNAN PLATEAU BASED ON SPEI [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2015, 24(07): 1238-1245.
[8] LIU Jian, ZHANG Ai, HU Chong-Yo, DI Jian-Jing, JIN Xiao-Chi. CHANGE OF ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF POYANG LAKE WATERSHED AND ASSOCIATED INFLUENCING FACTORS IN THE PAST 50 YEARS [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2010, 19(2): 139-.
[9] LI Kuan-yi, LIU Zheng-wen, WANG Chun-zhong,WANG Chuan-hai, SHI Jia-da, HU Yao-hui. EFFECT OF LOW DISSOLVED OXYGEN ON THE GROWTH OF VALLISNERIA SPIRALIS [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(5): 670-673.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] LI Na,XU You-peng,CHEN Shuang. INFLUENCE OF URBANIZATION ON PRECIPITATION IN SUZHOU CITY[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(3): 335 -339 .
[2] SUN Weixia, ZHAO Yongcun, HUANG Biao, LIAO Jingjing, WANG Zhigang, WANG Hongjie. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SELENIUM IN SOIL ENVIRONMENT AND  ITS CORRELATION WITH HUMAN HEALTH IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA OF CHINA[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2008, 17(1): 113 .
[3] REN Xue-mei, XU Yong-hui, ZHOU Bin, YANG Da-yuan. A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR THE PROVENANCE OF THE HIGHER TERRACES IN THE UPPER REACH OF CHUANJIANG RIVER——AN APPLICATION OF STEPWISE DISCRIMINATION ANALYSIS TO THE HEAVY MINERAL ASSEMBLAGE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(3): 330 -334 .
[4] SHI Lian-qiang, LI Jiu-fa, YING Ming, ZUO Shu-hua, XU Hai-gen. EVOLUTIONAL PROCESS IN MEIMAOSHA OF THE YANGTZE RIVER ESTUARY AND ITS RESPONSE TO RESERVOIR PROJECT[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(4): 458 -464 .
[5] XU Tianbao, PENG Jing, LI Chong. INFLUENCE OF GEZHOUBA DAM ON THE ECO HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE MIDDLE REACH OF THE YANGTZE RIVER [J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2007, 16(1): 72 -75 .
[6] WANG Hongjuan, JIANG Jiahu,HUANG Qun. A STUDY ON THE CHANGE OF WETLAND LANDSCAPE PATTERN IN EAST DONGTING LAKE[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2007, 16(6): 732 .
[7] LUO Xiaolong, CHEN Wen, JIN Zhifeng. NANJING SUBURBAN AREA'S DEVELOPMENT MECHANISMS, PROBLEMS AND SUGGESTIONS[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2008, 17(2): 175 .
[8] PU Zhizhong. ESEARCH ON OWNERSHIP RIGHTS OF WATER RESOURCES[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2008, 17(4): 561 .
[9] ZHANG Dai-jun,XU Dan-yu,REN Hong-yang,CAO Hai-bing, ZHENG Min, LIU Hui-qiang. PROBLEMS IN RELATION TO CONTROL OF WATER POLLUTION IN THE THREE GORGES′ RESERVOIR IN THE YANGTZE RIVER[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2005, 14(5): 605 -610 .
[10] WANG Zhao-Lei-, He-Xin-Qi-. GOVERNING THE NATURE CALAMITY OF HUBEI PROVINCE AND LESSONS IN THE LATE QING DYNASTY[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2009, 18(11): 1080 .
Copyright © RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, All Rights Reserved.
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd