RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (09): 1457-1465.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201609017

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RETURN PERIOD OF DROUGHT IN DIANCHI BASIN IN LAST 60 YEARS

CHEN Jing1, GU Shi-xiang1, HE Da-ming2, CHEN Gang1,3   

  1. 1. Yunnan Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Survey Design and Research Institute, Kunming 650021, China;
    2. Institute of international rivers and eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;
    3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • Received:2016-01-05 Revised:2016-03-01 Online:2016-09-20
  • Supported by:
    Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment (2013ZX07102-006-01);Yunnan Provincial Talent Innovative Program (2011CI092)

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Abstract: Meteorological and hydrological monthly or daily data of 3 meteorological, 3 hydrological, 2 water level and 14 main reservoirs stations in Dianchi Basin from the 1950s to 2014 were collected and analyzed in this paper. First, based on meteorological hydrological and agricultural drought indices, namely SPI, SRI and Ia, drought events were identified and its duration and severity were confirmed through the Runs Theory. Then, the periodic variation regularity of drought duration and severity were revealed using wavelet analysis. Finally, multivariate joint distribution of drought duration and severity was constructed through the Gumbel Copula function, joint and co-occurrence return periods of drought were calculated and conditional return period of one drought event by the influence of anterior drought event was determined. The results showed that in the whole basin, drought disaster was significantly worsening. There has an over 100 year variation period of no matter drought duration or drought severity. The drought in 2012-2013 was the mostly serious drought events and its joint and co-occurrence return periods were 120.48 and 224.41 years, respectively. Its conditional return period by the affection of drought in 2009-2010 was 271.82 years. When drought events were added up, there was an additive effect. Water level process of Dianchi Lake, abnormal region atmospheric circulation, drought historical documents and lake sediments were compared and analyzed, which prove the scientific reasonability of the research accomplishments.

Key words: Dianchi Basin, drought, return period, Copula, joint distribution

CLC Number: 

  • S423
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