未来30a凉山州水稻盛夏低温危害风险分析

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj2016Z1014

Abstract

Abstract: According to daily average temperature predicted by the stage 5 test plan (CMIP5-RCP6.0) of the climate system model (BCC) at each lattice point in 2006-2050, we corrected and inverted the daily average temperature of every site of the Liangshan prefecture from 2021 to 2050. Using the low temperature index of different areas of Liangshang prefecture during rice heading and flowering, we analyzed the mid summer low temperatue frequency and the security sowing date and the security full heading date, and the days from sowing security date to full heading security date. We also established a risk index of mid summer low temperature on the rice such as I=exp(Id+Ip-2). According to the risk index, the Liangshan prefecture were divided into different areas of low temperature risk. The results showed that:(1) the mid summer low temperature frequency of Liangshan was between 10% and 300%, and the regional and interannual differences were very large; (2) Compared with the past 30 years, generally, the security sowing date of rice was advanced by about 10d,the most advance was more than 20d in the Liangshan prefecture. Only at a few sites the security full heading date was delayed, while most sites had a advanced tendency. (3) The areas at an altitude below 1500 m had no such risk, while the 1500-2000m areas were lower-risk areas, 2000-2500m were medium risk areas, 2500-2600 m were high risk areas. The partition results are ine line with the actual product of rice in the Liangshan Prefecture, and provided a scientific basis for future rice production layout in response to climate change.

Key words: next 30 years, the midsummer low temperature, risk division, rice, LiangShan prefecture

CLC Number:

S511

PENG Guo-zhao, XING Kai-yu, CAO Yan-qiu. ANALYSIS ON MIDSUMMER LOW TEMPERATURE DAMAGE RISK OF RICE IN LIANGSHAN PREFECTURE IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS[J].RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2016, 25(Z1): 103-110.

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ANALYSIS ON MIDSUMMER LOW TEMPERATURE DAMAGE RISK OF RICE IN LIANGSHAN PREFECTURE IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS

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