中国县域人均粮食占有量的时空差异及驱动因素

doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201703011

Abstract

Abstract: Grain supply- consumption balance is an important indicator for national food security. Per capital grain possession is a major indicator in studying the supply-and-demand equilibrium of grain. Agricultural statistics at county-resolution level for the period of 2004-2014 in China was collected and the GIS spatial analysis technique as well as other tools such as Moran's I, Getis-Ord and gravity model were introduced to describe the spatial changes of per capita grain possession at county level. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was used to explore the driving factors of per capita grain possession. The results showed that:First, per capita grain possession showed an overall trend of rise over the period of 2004-2014. The gravity center of per capita grain possession transferred from the southwest to northeast. Second, per capita grain possession at county level in China showed a strong trend of positive spatial natural correlation, and the similar areas cluster in space. The county-level of internal per capita grain possession spatial disparities have been gradually widened. Spatial pattern of hot spots and cold spots changed significantly during the past 20 years. In 2004, the per capita share of grain in the country was relatively scattered, and the northeast region was the only hot area in the whole country. In 2014, hot spots were still in the northeast, but somewhat smaller than in 2004. Third, the driving factors of different regions showed localization characteristic of no-stationary intercourse. The importance degree was as follows:population > tertiary industrial output > urbanization rate > secondary industrial output > per capita GDP.

Key words: per capita grain possession, spatial pattern, drive mechanism, GWR

CLC Number:

F301.24

PAN Jing-hu, ZHANG Jian-hui. SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND ITS DRIVING FORCES OF PER CAPITAL GRAIN POSSESSION IN CHINA[J].RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2017, 26(03): 410-418.

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SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND ITS DRIVING FORCES OF PER CAPITAL GRAIN POSSESSION IN CHINA

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