RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2017, Vol. 26 >> Issue (12): 2049-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201712014

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SECURITY PREWARNING AND REGULATION OF ECOLOGICAL CARRYING CAPACITY OF CHANG-ZHU-TAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION BASED ON PRESS-STATE-RESPONSE MODEL#br#

ZHU Yu-lin1,2, LI Ming-jie1,3,GU Rong-hua1   

  1. (1. School of Economics, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, 2.Green Development Institute of Hunan Province, Changsha 410004, China; 3. Huashang College of Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou 511300, China)
  • Online:2017-12-20

Abstract: Based on the index system of the security prewarning and regulation of urban agglomeration ecological carrying capacity, this paper calculates the security index of the ecological carrying capacity of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2015, and predicates the security warning degree of each year by collecting the relevant raw data and using the grey weighted relevance theory. The calculation result indicates: the ecological carrying capacity security index of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration shows an upward tendency from the overall view. The security warning degree decreases from “high level” to “low level”. While from the subsystems of pressure, status and response, the security index also shows an increasing tendency. The security warning degree decreases from “high level” or “middle level” to “low level”. The analysis shows the implementation effect of the resource and environment policies of “two-oriented society” experimental area of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration is evident. However, it is also found that the security indexes of experimental area are below 0.700 0, which are far away from the “no alarm” (0.850 0) level. There is still a long way to go in the construction of “two-oriented society” of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.

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