RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2004, Vol. 13 >> Issue (1): 53-59.

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TREND AND DRIVING FORCE OF CULTIVATED LAND USE CHANGE IN HUNAN PROVINCE

WANG Zhao-hui(1),WANG Ke-lin(1),XIONG Yan(2),XU Lian-fang(1)   

  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2004-01-20
  • Contact: WANG Zhao-hui

Abstract: According to the statistical and survey data at provincial and county levels,the trend of cultivated land change,the spatial difference, and the driving forces of cultivated land change in Hunan province during the last 50 years are discussed in this paper.The total area of arable land and per capital availability are reducing;for example, the total cultivated land reached its top in 1957,then declined;per capital cultivated land decreased nearly in a straight line year after year,and changed from 0.114 hm\+2 to 0.049 hm\+2.The trend of decrease will continue with the development of economy and increase of population.Based on the GIS spatial analysis the gravity center and moed 10.198 km to the north,and the change have relatively regional difference. As a result of the principal component analysis and correlation analysis,the eight drivingforce variables affecting arable land changes were analyzed which could be classified into three types:pressure of population system, the dynamic development of economy and progress of science and thchnology in agriculture. By using regressive equation, along with population growth and economic development, the prediction of cultivated land in Hunan province is done for 2010 and 2025. The analytical results and conclusion of this paper will provide scientific basic for sustainable agriculture development in Hunan Province.

Key words: cultivated land change, driving forces, regressive prediction, Hunan Province

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