RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2019, Vol. 28 >> Issue (10): 2419-2428.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201910014

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Susceptibility Assessment of Debris Flow in Nujiang Befecture Based on the Catchment

LI Yi-min1,2,YANG Lei1,WEI Su-hang1,3   

  1. (1.College of Resource Environment and Earth Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091,China;
    2.Tableland Mountain Hazards and Environment Research Center, Institute of Geography, Kunming 650223,China;
    3. Kunming Land Planning, Surveying and Mapping Research Institute,Kunming 650041,China)
  • Online:2019-10-20 Published:2019-11-05

Abstract: In order to learn the overall characteristics and spatial heterogeneity of regional debris flow, this article investigates the susceptibility of debris flow based on catchments and 434 debris flows point in NuJiang Prefecture. Firstly, the study area is devided into 1 414 catchments. Secondly, 11 feature factors including distance to fracture, melton rate, catchment elongation, catchment relief ratio, river tortuosity, drainage density of catchment, average VFC, Annual average precipitation, distance to road and villages are selcected to Certainly Factor model(CF) and CF-based multi-factor overlay method to assessment the susceptibility of debris. And then, the susceptibility assessment results be dividied into five grades and verified it by independent validation samples(20% historical debris flow points in the study area). The results shows that 8.31% of the study area is the extremely high-prone area involving 29.75% debris flow points and 12.29% of the study area is high-prone area involving 22.59% debris flow points. Finally ,the model predicted well (AUC=0.742) through the test of independent validation samples. Therefore, the susceptibility evaluation results is similar to debris flow’s spatial distribution in NuJiang Prefecture that indicates the evaluation index and evaluation method are feasible, and the evaluation results is a reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation work in Nujiang Prefecture.

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