RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN >> 2016, Vol. 25 >> Issue (01): 140-146.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201601017

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SEASONAL DROUGHT RESEARCH BASED ON GEV INDEX AND DFA METHOD IN THE NORTH OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

GONG Yan-bing1,2, HU Na1, LIU Gao-feng1, FENG Lan-ping1   

  1. 1. Institute of Hydraulic Information Statistic and Management, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
  • Received:2015-04-07 Revised:2015-06-02 Online:2016-01-20

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Abstract: For the analysis of the characteristics of seasonal drought in the north of Jiangsu Province, a new drought index, which is based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was introduced. The generalized extreme value distribution function is established using the mean monthly precipitation data from 1989 to 2013 of north Jiangsu Province. By computing the generalized extreme value index (GEVI) drought index, the seasonal drought distribution and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics are analyzed of north Jiangsu five cities in recent 25 years. From meteorology drought, the GEVI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) widely used in north region of Jiangsu are compared in this paper. The applicability of drought monitor between GEVI and SPI in north Jiangsu Province is discussed in greater detail. The results show that the two drought indexes are similar in computational principle. Based on the different distributional pattern of precipitation, they are given different drought grades in some drought events. It is more exhaustively and objectively to fit the precipitation distribution in generalized extreme value distribution. On this basis, using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method study the law of month average rainfall of North Jiangsu five cities. The results show that the five cities both obey Fréchet probability distribution, and from (Xuzhou City) northwest to the southeast coastal (Yancheng City) increases the space distribution features of region. The southeast part of North Jiangsu Province is the largest area of monthly precipitation, and the biggest change of the precipitation month. Five cities overall belong to the area of drought disaster and give priority to with the light drought and obvious seasonal characteristics. There is a powerlaw correlation in Northern Jiangsu Province five cities, which has a positive long range correlation. Therefore, the overall trend of the future will be associated with the past characteristics. The result indicate that GEVI and DFA method is an effective method for assessing drought conditions at different time scales and could be of great value for the dry season response.

Key words: the north Jiangsu area, drought, generalized extreme value index, detrended fluctuation analysis

CLC Number: 

  • P468
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