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Spatial Pattern Reconstruction of Soil Organic Carbon Storage Based on CAMarkov#br# —— A Case Study in PanYangtze River Delta
- ZHOU Jie, ZHANG Xueru, MU Fengyun, ZHAO Ruiyi, ZHOU Wei, LI Mengmei
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2018, (07):
1410.
doi:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201807016
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Abstract
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According to the national and international theories and the actual situation of PanYangtze River Delta, the authors select ten driving factors as the leading forces of land use change, such as elevation, slope aspect, slope grade, GDP, population, temperature, rainfall, river distance, urban distance and coastline distance. Firstly, the study accomplish the maps of land suitability by Logistic analysis based on above factors. With the application of CAMarkov model, the land use pattern of six periods in 2000, 1995, 1990, 1985, 1980 and 1975 is simulated. Secondly, the paper uses the method of full number detection to test the accuracy test for simulation results. Lastly, the paper calculate the soil organic carbon storage in PanYangtze River Delta. On the basis, we reconstruct the historical spatial pattern of soil organic carbon storage in research area. There are several important findings: ①CAMarkov model is feasible for historical land use simulation owing to the model simulation accuracy is 8873%. ②The history of soil organic carbon storage in the PanYangtze River Delta was significantly higher than 2010, and it was increasing progressively from now to historical periods; soil organic carbon reserves were as 32351Pg, 32419.Pg, 32476Pg, 32518Pg and 32553Pg in 1995, 1990, 1985, 1980 and 1975, respectively. ③The spatial pattern of soil organic carbon storage in the Yangtze River Delta was high in the north, low in the south, the land use types were closely related to the soil organic carbon reserves, and the organic carbon reserves in urban builtup areas were lower than those in other areas, the increase of soil organic carbon storage mainly appeared in its high value area, land use types were closely related to the soil organic carbon reserves, and the organic carbon reserves in urban builtup areas were lower than those in other areas, the increase of soil organic carbon storage mainly appeared in its high value area. ④The increase of cultivated land and forestland area and the decrease of construction land area led to the increase of organic carbon storage from 1995 to 1975. The spatial pattern of soil organic carbon storage in historical period can be effectively reconstructed based on the CAMarkov model.