长江流域资源与环境 >> 2014, Vol. 23 >> Issue (04): 542-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201404014

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

黑河上游气候变化对出山口径流的驱动分析

张喜风   

  1. (兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室旱区流域科学与水资源研究中心,甘肃 兰州  730000)
  • 出版日期:2014-04-20

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS DRIVING EFFECT ON THE RUNOFF IN THE HEIHE BASIN

ZHANG Xifeng   

  1. (Center for Dryland Water Resources Research and Watershed Science,Key Laboratory of West Chinas Environmental System (Ministry of Education),Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China
  • Online:2014-04-20

摘要:

将计量经济学中广泛应用的面板数据分析方法应用到自然科学领域,基于黑河上游山区3个站点的气象水文年尺度数据及季尺度数据,对1959~2009年的降水、温度、潜在蒸散发与出山口径流量分别进行单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,讨论了不同气候要素与径流变化的关系。研究表明:面板数据分析方法同样适用于自然科学领域;各检验结果表明降水、潜在蒸散发对径流存在显著的效应,跟温度相比,潜在蒸散发对径流的影响更为显著,能够更好地表征水文特征;季节尺度上的分析更为细致的说明了降水和潜在蒸散发对径流的影响。利用面板回归模型对黑河流域上游气候变化对径流的驱动影响进行不同情景下的分析,以当前气候条件为本底,结果表明,若气温升高,降水增加,则降水对径流的驱动力减弱,降水减少,则降水对径流的驱动力增强;而降水的变化则不影响气温对径流的驱动作用

Abstract:

The Heihe Basin is located in the intersection region of the Asian monsoon and westerly winds,and sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile.Studying the response of water cycle to climate change is of great significance for understanding the current change of environment and utilization of water resources in the future.The panel data analysis method has been widely used in econometrics,but rarely used in the field of natural sciences.Based on the meteorological hydrological data from the 3 meteorological stations and hydrological stations in the upper reaches of Heihe Basin during 1959-2009,this paper applied the panel data method to analyze the influences of climatic factors on the runoff.The result of unit root test,cointegration test and granger causality test show panel data analysis method is also applicable to natural science researches.The model suggests that precipitation had a greatest contribution to runoff,and obviously,compared to the temperature,the potential evapotranspiration had a more significant effect on runoff.Results from scenario analysis showed that,with rising temperature,if precipitation increased,the driving effect of precipitation on runoff would slow down,and if precipitation decreased,the driving effect of precipitation on runoff would build up

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