长江流域资源与环境 >> 2014, Vol. 23 >> Issue (s): 149-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj2014Z1021

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球气候变化背景下上海市风暴潮灾害情景下脆弱性评估

邱蓓莉,徐长乐,刘洋,徐廷廷   

  1. (1.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200062; 2.华东师范大学长江流域发展研究院,上海 200062)
  • 出版日期:2014-11-26

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF SEALEVEL RISE AND STORM SURGES ON SHANGHAI

QIU Beili1, XU Changle2, LIU Yang1, XU Tingting1   

  1. (1School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
    2Academy of Yangtze Basin Development Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China)
  • Online:2014-11-26

摘要:

上海地处长三角地区,地势低平,潮滩与湿地广布,未来海平面上升加剧的风暴潮灾害、咸水入侵等灾害,将给该地区的社会经济发展带来巨大损失。应用情景模拟法和脆弱性评估法来评估上海市河口海岸地区的脆弱性,定量化研究了2030年和2050年海平面上升、地面沉降和风暴潮灾害的情景下的威胁区域。到2030年和2050年海平面将分别上升866 mm和1856 mm,中心城区的地面沉降将达087~6029 cm和156~10852 cm,上海市将面临类似9711号台风的威胁。在此情景以及现有的防灾基础之上,对上海市河口海岸地区进行脆弱性评估。结果表明应对风暴潮最脆弱的地区是黄浦江两岸的低洼地区。在类似9711台风的影响下,2030年上海的脆弱性指数相对较低,主要脆弱区域集中在奉贤和南汇的交界处、崇明县的横沙岛和长兴岛以及黄浦江两岸的低洼地区,此时,暴露于05 m以上的人口为62万人,占总人口的186%,经济损失为1 152、1 372、1 632亿元(分别在经济增速为8%、9%、10%的情景下),占全市国内生产总值的15%;2050年,上海市脆弱性急剧升高,脆弱性区域扩大3546%,分布面积十分广泛,在类似9711号台风的影响下,暴露于05 m以上的人口达到748万人,占总人口的2166%,经济损失将高达105 581、151 248、215 959亿元(分别在经济增速为8%、9%、10%的情景下),占全市国内生产总值的296%。这些结果应当引起有关部门对于未来海平面上升潜在影响的警惕

Abstract:

 The Yangtze River Delta is in eastern neotectonic subsidence area This area lies in the lowlying areas, with tidal flats and wetlands widely distributed Future sea level rise will intensify storm surge, saltwater intrusion and other disasters, which will cause huge losses to the regions socioeconomic development In this study, scenario simulation and vulnerability assessment methods were applied to evaluate the vulnerability of estuarine and coastal areas in Shanghai and quantify threatened zones of 2030 and 2050 under sea level rise and storm surge disaster scenarios Based on the existing disaster prevention, the results showed that the most vulnerable areas against flooding were the lowlying areas along the Huangpu River The vulnerability index of Shanghai in 2030 would be relatively low, and vulnerable areas mainly concentrate in the junction of Fengxian and Nanhui, Changxing and Hengsha islands and lowlying areas along the Huangpu River At that time, 062 million of population would be exposed to above 05 m, about 186% of the total population, with 227 people died (at 50% confidence interval), and the economic losses would be 1152 billion yuan, 1372 billion yuan, 1632 billion yuan (respectively under the scenarios of economic growth rates of 8%, 9%, 10%), about 15% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) of this city In 2050, the fragility of Shanghai would sharply rise, with vulnerable area expanding to 3546% of the total area, and distributed extensively Similar to typhoon No 9 711, 748 million of population would be exposed to above 05 m, about 2166% of the total population, with 5 976 people died (at 50% confidence level), and the economic losses would be as high as 10 5581 billion yuan, 15 1248 billion yuan, 21 5959 billion yuan (respectively under the scenarios of economic growth of 8%, 9%, 10%), representing 296% of the citys total GDP.

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