长江流域资源与环境 >> 2020, Vol. 29 >> Issue (9): 2090-2110.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202009020

• 自然灾害 • 上一篇    

基于AFI指数的汉江上游流域洪涝突变辨识

陈灏,董前进,张旭   

  1. (武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430072)
  • 出版日期:2020-09-20 发布日期:2020-09-30

Identification of Abrupt Floods Based on AFI in Upper Hanjiang River Basin

CHEN Hao, DONG Qian-jin, ZHANG Xu   

  1. (State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)
  • Online:2020-09-20 Published:2020-09-30

摘要: 洪涝灾害往往容易在短期内突然发生,从而造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,但目前有关突发性洪涝现象的甄别与分析并没有达成共识。在利用标准化前期降水指数SAPI(Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Index)评估出逐日洪涝状态的基础上,提出突变性洪涝指数AFI(Abrupt Flood Index)以综合反映水量由前期(当天)到后期(后10天)突变及后期洪涝程度,同时定义并计算AFI阈值AFIt,认为AFI超过AFIt的日期为临界状态,后期将发生突变性洪涝事件。以汉江上游流域为例计算出该流域1972~2017年逐日AFI指数,并利用AFIt判别出了处于临界状态的日期。进一步分析表明,AFI指数能够较好地反映突变性洪涝现象,利用AFI指数甄别出的洪涝临界状态有利于识别流域突变性洪涝事件并有助于流域水资源系统应急管理。

Abstract: Floods are often prone to sudden occurrences in the short term, resulting in huge casualties and property losses. However, there is no consensus on the screening and analysis of sudden floods. Based on the assessment of the daily flooding status by the standardized antecedent precipitation index (SAPI), the abrupt flood index (AFI) is proposed to comprehensive reflection of the abrupt amount of water from the previous period (the same day) to the late period (the last 10 days) and the degree of flooding. At the same time, the definition and calculation of AFI threshold AFIt are presented, considering that an abrupt flood event will occur later when AFI is greater than AFIt . Taking the upper Hanjiang river basin as an example, the daily AFI index of the basin from 1972 to 2017 was calculated, and the date of the critical state was determined by AFIt. Further analysis shows that the AFI index can better reflect the phenomenon of abrupt flood and AFI is helpful to identify the abrupt floods events and is benefit for the emergency management of the water resources system in the basin.

No related articles found!
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
[1] 张英浩, 陈江龙, 程 钰. 环境规制对中国区域绿色经济效率的影响机理研究——基于超效率模型和空间面板计量模型实证分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(11): 2407 -2418 .
[2] 刘金科, 韩贵琳, 阳昆桦, 柳满. 九龙江流域河水溶解态碳的时空变化[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(11): 2578 -2587 .
[3] 潘 静, 沈建忠, 孙林丹, 熊 雷. 长江、赣江鲢幼鱼耳石核区元素指纹特征分析及其在群体识别中的应用研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(12): 2740 -2746 .
[4] 杨达源, 黄贤金, 施利锋, 李升峰. 1973~2017年扬中市江岸冲淤遥感监测及古河道塌江分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2018, 27(12): 2796 -2804 .
[5] 何莎莎, 朱文博, 崔耀平, 何春龙, 叶露培, 冯小燕, 朱连奇, . 基于InVEST模型的太行山淇河流域土壤侵蚀特征研究[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(02): 426 -439 .
[6] 孔春芳 岳永财 徐凯. 2000-2015年江汉平原区域植被NPP时空特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 0, (): 0 .
[7] 朱文东 周廷刚 李洪忠 许燕燕 张兰. 基于OMI数据的成渝城市群对流层NO2浓度遥感监测[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 0, (): 0 .
[8] 盖豪 颜廷武 何可 张俊飚. 社会嵌入视角下农户保护性耕作技术采用行为研究——基于冀、皖、鄂三省668份农户调查数据[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 0, (): 0 .
[9] 孙惠惠, 章新平, 黎祖贤, 刘福基, 尚程鹏, 罗紫东, 周慧. 长江流域不同类型降水量的非均匀性分布特征[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(06): 1422 -1433 .
[10] 孙 伟, 陈 雯, 刘崇刚, . 太湖流域水敏性与建设用地扩张的关联评价[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(07): 1575 -1582 .