长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (1): 212-221.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202201020

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

直接作用与间接传导:城市扩张是否刺激了化肥投入

沈璐丹1,郭杰1,2,3*,欧名豪1,2,3,易家林1
  

  1. (1.南京农业大学土地管理学院,江苏 南京 210095;2.统筹城乡发展与土地管理创新研究基地,江苏 南京 210095;3.农村土地资源利用与整治国际地方联合工程研究中心,江苏 南京 201195)
  • 出版日期:2022-01-20 发布日期:2022-02-09

Does Urban Expansion Directly or Indirectly Increase Fertilizer Input?

SHEN Lu-dan1, GUO Jie1,2,3, OU Ming-hao1,2,3, YI Jia-lin1   

  1. (1. College of Land Management, Nanjing agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China; 2. Center of Urban-rural 
    Joint Development and Land Management Innovation, Nanjing 210095, China; 3. State and Local 
    Joint Engineering Research Center of Rural Land Resources Utilization and Consolidation, Nanjing 210095, China)
  • Online:2022-01-20 Published:2022-02-09

摘要: 研究城市扩张对化肥投入的影响机制,对规范化肥施用与管理、合理调控城市化进程具有重要意义。利用长三角区域五期社会经济发展与土地利用面板数据,借助固定效应模型,定量分析城市扩张是否会直接作用于化肥施用量,并运用路径分析法探究城市扩张间接影响化肥投入的传导机制。结果表明:(1)城市扩张对化肥投入直接作用不显著,但会间接增加化肥施用强度;(2)城市扩张会导致耕地产权不稳定、农业劳动力投入减少、农民收入水平上升,从而增加化肥施用强度,但同时降低耕地破碎度而抑制化肥施用强度;(3)城市扩张对化肥施用强度的间接影响路径中,产权不稳定和劳动力投入的影响较大,耕地破碎度和收入水平的影响相对较小。鉴于此,根据城市扩张影响化肥投入的机理和路径,为缓解耕地产权不稳定、农业劳动力投入减少和农民收入增加带来的刺激,从加强建设用地管控、稳定农地产权、推广环境友好型农业技术与促进土地综合整治等方面提出政策建议。

Abstract: Studying the influence mechanism of urban expansion on fertilizer input is of great significance for standardizing fertilizer application and management, and rationally regulating the process of urbanization. This research uses the five-phase of socio-economic development data and land use panel data of the core region of the Yangtze River Delta, combining fixed effect model and path analysis to explore the direct and indirect effects of urban expansion on fertilizer input. It is found that: (1) urban expansion does not has a significant direct effect on fertilizer input, but it will  indirect increase the intensity of fertilizer application; (2) Urban expansion will lead to the instability of farmland property rights, the reduction of agricultural labor input, and the increase of farmers' income levels, thereby increasing the intensity of fertilizer application;but at the same time reducing the fragmentation of farmland to inhibit the intensity of fertilizer application; (3) The effect of property rights instability and labor play the most important role, while the effect of income level and fragmentation of cultivated land is relatively weak. Thus, taking into account the effects of instability of farmland property rights, the decrease in agricultural labor input and the increase in farmers' incomes on fertilizer input, this paper aims to put forward policy recommendations to strengthen construction land management and control, stabilize farmland property rights, popularize environmentally friendly agricultural technologies and promote comprehensive land consolidation.

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