长江流域资源与环境 >> 2022, Vol. 31 >> Issue (4): 862-877.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202204014

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带交通能源碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素研究

胡怀敏1,2,左薇1,徐士元3*
  

  1. (1.中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北 武汉 430074;2.湖北省区域创新能力监测与分析软科学研究基地,湖北 武汉 430074;3.浙江海洋大学经济管理学院,浙江 舟山 316022)
  • 出版日期:2022-04-20 发布日期:2022-04-21

Decoupling Effect and Driving Factors of Transportation Energy Carbon Emission in Yangtze River Economic Belt

HU Huai-min1,2, ZUO Wei1, XU Shi-yuan3   

  1. (1. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China; 2. Soft Science Research Base for Monitoring and Analyzing Regional Innovation Capability in Hubei Province, Wuhan 430074, China; 3.School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China)
  • Online:2022-04-20 Published:2022-04-21

摘要: 为推进长江经济带交通运输业的绿色转型,实现交通运输业发展与碳减排的协调共进,将Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI因素分解法相结合,分析了长江经济带2004~2018年交通运输业经济发展与交通能源碳排放之间的脱钩情况以及脱钩的驱动因素。结果表明:(1) 2004~2018年,长江经济带交通碳排放总量与人均碳排放量均呈上升趋势,石油类能源消费碳排放占交通碳排放总量的比例高达95.51%;(2)长江经济带交通碳排放脱钩以“弱脱钩”为主,部分年份出现“连接增长”和“扩张负脱钩”,脱钩状态稳定性不高,长江经济带交通业经济发展整体上仍未摆脱对交通能源碳排放的依赖;(3)交通行业规模、经济增长和人口规模对长江经济带交通能源碳排放脱钩起抑制作用,交通能源强度与能源结构对交通碳排放脱钩起促进作用,其中经济增长效应是阻碍交通能源碳排放脱钩的主要因素,能源强度效应是促进交通能源碳排放脱钩的主要因素。基于此,提出推进经济结构调整、优化交通能源消耗结构、推动科技创新以及加强交通需求管理等相关建议。

Abstract: In order to promote the green transformation of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and achieve coordinated development of the transportation industry and carbon emission reduction, the study analyzes the decoupling situation and driving factors between the economic development of the transportation industry and the carbon emissions of transportation energy during 2004 to 2018, with a combined use of the Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI factor decomposition approach. The results show that both the total and per capita carbon emissions of the transportation industry were on the rise in the Yangtze Economic Belt from 2004 to 2018, and the carbon emissions from petroleum energy consumption accounted for 95.51% of the total emissions. The decoupling of transportation carbon emission in the belt was mainly "weak decoupling", with "connecting growth" and "expanding negative decoupling" in some years, and the decoupling state was unstable. On a whole, the economic development of the transportation industry in the belt has not yet shaken off its dependence on transportation energy carbon emissions. To be specific, scale of transportation industry, economic growth and population size restrained, while transportation energy intensity and energy structure promoted the decoupling of transportation energy carbon emissions in the belt. Among the factors, economic effect is the main factor impeding the decoupling of transportation energy carbon emissions, while energy intensity effect is the main factor promoting it. Based on the findings, the study puts forward relevant suggestions on facilitating economic restructuring, optimizing transportation energy consumption structure, boosting scientific and technological innovation, and strengthening transportation demand management (TDM) as effective measures to realize the coordinated development of transportation industry and carbon emission reduction in the belt.


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