长江流域资源与环境 >> 2024, Vol. 33 >> Issue (1): 150-162.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202401013

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

三峡库区N2O时空分布差异及减排潜力分析

李丹青1,王云琦1,2*,王震1,白志杰3,李海涛4   

  1. (1.北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京 100085;2.北京林业大学水土保持学院,重庆缙云山三峡库区森林生态系统国家定位观测研究站,北京 100083;3.呼伦贝尔农垦集团,内蒙古 呼伦贝尔 021008;4.呼伦贝尔水文勘测局,内蒙古 呼伦贝尔 021099)
  • 出版日期:2024-01-20 发布日期:2024-02-01

Differences in N2O Spatio-temporal Distribution and Emission Reduction Potential in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

LI Dan-qing1,WANG Yun-qi1,2,WANG Zhen1,BAI Zhi-jie3,LI Hai-tao4   

  1. (1.Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100085,China;2.College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, National Positioning Observation and Research Station of Forest Ecosystems in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Jinyun Mountain, Chongqing,Beijing 100083,China;3.Hulunbuir Agricultural Reclamation Group, Hulunbuir 021008,China;
    4.Hulunbuir Hydrographic Survey Bureau, Hulunbuir 021099,China)

  • Online:2024-01-20 Published:2024-02-01

摘要: 氧化亚氮(N2O)是继二氧化碳(CO2)和甲烷(CH4)之后的全球第三大温室气体,地区的农业集约化发展和城镇化推进会加剧N2O排放。基于此选取三峡库区为典型地区,利用IPCC排放因子法和情景分析法对三峡库区N2O时空分布差异及减排潜力进行研究。结果表明:(1)三峡库区2006年~2019年N2O排放量维持在1.47~1.62万t,总体趋势呈先升高后降低且库区内18个区县间差异性较为显著(P<0.01),空间分布具有随机性(14年年均Moran I≈0)。(2)三峡库区农业活动是三峡库区N2O最主要的来源,而化肥施用量和粪便排放量是库区农业N2O最大来源,占比为40.48%和23.84%。利用STIRPAT模型发现N2O驱动因素中,城镇化率对三峡库区有控制作用,促进因子从小到大依次为粮食产量、乡村从业人数、第一产业增值和人均GDP。(3)利用情景分析法在3种减排情景下对三峡库区2030年N2O排放量进行预测,预测值分别为1.55、1.34和1.21万t。针对三峡库区N2O排放情况和未来预测情况,建议从库区腹部地带着手,控制农田氮肥施用量和加强畜禽粪便管理,建立种养结合新农业模式,探索减排过程中的土壤内部循环机理,多方面联合控制N2O的排放。

Abstract: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the world’s third largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) and is increasing year by year. The intensive development of agriculture and the advancement of urbanization in the Three Gorges reservoir area will also exacerbate N2O emissions. In order to understand the emission of N2O in the reservoir area and make suggestions for the low-carbon development.This study used the IPCC emission factor method and scenario analysis method to study the differences in N2O spatio-temporal distribution and to explore the emission reduction potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.The results showed: (1) N2O emissions in the Three Gorges reservoir area remained at 14 700-16 200 t in 2006~2019. The overall emission trend was first higher and then decreased. The difference between 18 districts and counties in the reservoir area was significant (P<0.01), and the spatial distribution was random (annual average Moran I≈0 in the past 14 years). (2) Agricultural activities in the Three Gorges reservoir area were the main sources of N2O, while fertilizer application and fecal emissions contributed the most to N2O, accounting for 40.48% and 23.84%, respectively. By application of the STIRPAT model, it was found that among the driving factors of N2O emissions, the urbanization rate had constraining effects in the Three Gorges reservoir area, and the promotion factors from small to large were the grain output, the number of rural employees, the value-added of the primary industry and the per capita GDP. (3) The N2O emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 2030 were predicted under three emission reduction scenarios. The forecast values were 15 500, 13 400 and 12 100 t, respectively.In view of the N2O emissions and future predictions in the Three Gorges reservoir area, it was recommended that the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied in farmland be controlled, and the management of livestock and poultry manure be strengthened, in the hinterland of the reservoir area. It was also suggested that a new agricultural mode be established. The circulation mechanism in the process of emission reduction should be further explored. Joint efforts should be considered in the future to control N2O emissions.

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