Abstract: In order to promote the balance between supply and demand of regional ecosystem services, this paper takes Dongting Lake Basin as the research object, explores the land use change and the evolution characteristics of ecosystem services based on the land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and evaluates and predicts the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of ecosystem services supply and demand under different development scenarios in 2030 with the help of GeoSOS-FLUS and GM models. The results show that: (1) The most obvious characteristics of land use change in Dongting Lake Basin from 2000 to 2020 are the increase of construction land, the decrease of forest land and cultivated land area, and the overall supply of ecosystem services shows a downward trend, and the significantly reduced areas are mainly distributed in Dongting Lake, surrounding counties and cities of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, and some urban areas; (2) In 2030, grasslands and woodlands with high ecological value will continue to decrease, construction land will increase, and ecosystem services will be rapidly degraded in the whole region. In the ecological protection scenario, the land use pattern will be relatively stable, woodlands and waters will be on the rise, and the value of ecosystem services in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and other cities will also be on the rise. (3) Under the three scenarios, the demand for ecosystem services in the lower reaches of the Yangtze-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and Dongting Lake eco-economic zone is relatively high, while the supply of ecosystem services in these areas is low and tends to deteriorate, and the pattern of supply and demand has obvious spatial mismatch characteristics.