长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (1): 57-70.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202501005

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

适应性循环视角下开发区韧性演化过程及机制解析——以长株潭城市群开发区为例

宋关东1,唐承丽1*,周国华1,2,石琳3   

  1. (1.湖南师范大学地理科学学院,湖南 长沙 410081;2.湖南师范大学地理空间大数据挖掘与应用湖南省重点实验室,湖南 长沙 410081;3.湖南四达智库科技服务有限公司,湖南 长沙 410081)
  • 出版日期:2025-01-20 发布日期:2025-01-24

Evolution Process of Development Zone Resilience and  Mechanism under the Perspective of Adaptive Cycle: The Case of Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration Development Zones

SONG Guan-dong1, TANG Cheng-li1, ZHOU Guo-hua1,2, SHI Lin3   

  1. (1. College of Geographic Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;2.Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Geospatial Big Data Mining and Application, Changsha 410081, China; 3.Hunan Sida Think Tank Technology Service Corporation, Changsha 410081, China)
  • Online:2025-01-20 Published:2025-01-24

摘要: 当前,国际和国内环境复杂多变,开发区作为一个开放、动态的复杂系统,在演化过程中会面临各种不确定性风险,亟需寻求新的视角,对其展开综合研究。以长株潭城市群省级及以上开发区为研究对象,耦合适应性循环与区域经济韧性理论,构建“潜力-连通度-韧性”三维综合测度框架,运用熵值法和演化动力模型,对2005~2021年长株潭城市群17个开发区韧性演化轨迹进行刻画,探讨其韧性的演化机制。结果表明:(1)长株潭城市群开发区韧性水平在研究期内呈现出波动上升态势,应对外部扰动能力不断增强;(2)长株潭城市群开发区发展符合适应性循环内在规律,在开发、储存、释放和更新4个不同阶段持续演进,目前多数开发区位于更新阶段,正朝着新的开发阶段演化。(3)开发区韧性在复杂动态环境中不断演化,不同阶段驱动因素各异。开发和储存阶段,开发区韧性的主要动力来源于外部,城市财政自给水平、市场规模影响效应最为明显;释放阶段的主要驱动力来自于开发区产业专业化水平、治理能力;更新阶段受自身创新能力影响最为显著。研究旨在从动态发展的视角为开发区适应环境变化提供新思路、新方向,以期进一步丰富韧性研究内容,并为助推开发区本身以及地区经济高质量发展提供理论指导与案例支撑。

Abstract: Currently, the international and domestic environments are becoming complex and volatile. The development zone, as an open, dynamic, and complex system, may face a variety of uncertainty risks during the evolution process. There is an urgent need to seek new perspectives to carry out a comprehensive study. This study took the provincial-level and above development zones in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration (CZTUA) as the research object. Coupled theories of the adaptive cycle and regional economic resilience was applied to construct a three-dimensional comprehensive measurement framework of " potential-connectivity-resilience". Using the entropy method and the evolutionary dynamics model, we inscribed the trajectory of the resilience evolution of the 17 provincial-level and above development zones in the CZTUA from 2005 to 2021. The resilience formation mechanism from the multi-scale of the cities, development zones, and enterprises was explored. The results showed that: (1) the resilience level of the development zone of the CZTUA presented a fluctuating upward trend. The ability to cope with external disturbances was increasing. (2) The evolution of development zones in the CZTUA was consistent with the intrinsic law of adaptive cycling, which continued to evolve through four different stages: exploitation, conservation, release, and reorganization. The majority of development zones was currently in the updating stage and was evolving towards a new stage of exploitation. (3) The resilience of development zone evolved in a complex dynamic environment, with different driving factors at different stages. At the exploitation and conservation stages, the main driving force came from external sources, and the city's level of financial self-sufficiency and market scale showed the most significant effects; At the release stage, the main driving force came from the development zone's level of industrial specialization and governance capacity; At the reorganization stage, the innovation capacity showed the most significant effects. The study aimed to provide new ideas and directions for development zones to adapt to environmental changes from the perspective of dynamic development. The research outcomes were expected to further enrich the content of resilience research, and to provide theoretical guidance and case support for promoting the development of development zones themselves as well as the high-quality development of the regional economy.

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