长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (2): 268-279.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202502003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江经济带城市生态韧性时空演变格局及预测

王兆峰,梁志强   

  1. (湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南 长沙 410081)
  • 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-02-28

Evolution Pattern and Prediction of Ecological Resilience of Cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

WANG Zhao-feng,LIANG Zhi-qiang   

  1. (College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China)
  • Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-28

摘要: 系统评价长江经济带城市生态韧性水平对强化沿线生态风险预防和生态安全维护意义重大。基于“抵抗性-响应性-更新性”3个属性层面建立生态韧性评估模型,选取长江经济带110个地级市作为研究样本,采用熵权TOPSIS法、Kernel密度估计、传统和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵,剖析2011~2021年长江经济带城市生态韧性的时空演变格局及未来变化趋势。结果表明:(1)在时空分布格局上,长江经济带城市生态韧性水平波动抬升,但上升幅度较小,生态韧性优化进程缓慢;空间上总体呈上海、南京、杭州、合肥、南昌等省级行政中心向周边城市递减的发展局面,形成鲜明的“核心-外围”空间分布格局。(2)在时空转移特征上,长江经济带城市生态韧性状态转移具有较强的稳定性,存在明显的路径依赖与状态锁定,邻域背景显著作用于城市生态韧性状态的转移。(3)在发展趋势预测上,长江经济带城市生态韧性未来发展趋势较为乐观,沿线生态韧性水平随时间演化而渐进提高,且朝高韧性区间聚集。

Abstract: A systematic evaluation of the ecological resilience of cities situated within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is essential in enhancing the risk avoidance and protection of ecological security. An ecological resilience assessment model was established based on three attribute levels of "resistance-responsiveness-renewal". A total of 110 cities at regional scale within the YREB were selected as study cases. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, Kernel density estimation, and traditional and spatial Markov transfer probability matrices were adopted to explore the evolution of municipal ecological resilience for the period of 2011-2021. The results demonstrated that: (1) The horizontal eco-resilience of YREB cities was rising with fluctuations, but the rise was relatively small, and the optimization process of ecological resilience was slow. A decreasing development was noted from provincial cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Hefei and Nanchang to peripheral cities, which formed a distinctive spatial distribution pattern of "core-periphery". (2) A strong stability in the shift of eco-resilience status of cities across the YREB and the neighboring background played a significant role in the transfer of ecological resilience of cities. (3) In terms of forecasting development trends, the eco- resilience of YREB cities showed a relatively positive picture, i.e. the level of eco- resilience along with the route incrementally rose over time and converged towards a high resilience zone.

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