长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (2): 437-452.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202502017

• 农业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江中下游气候变化对早-中-晚稻单产的影响与系统适应性估计

王雅捷,李晓云*,徐宗冰,刘楚杰   

  1. (华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北  武汉430070)
  • 出版日期:2025-02-20 发布日期:2025-02-28

#br# Impact of Climate Change on Yields of Early-middle-late Rice and System Adaptation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

WANG Ya-jie, LI Xiao-yun, XU Zong-bing, LIU Chu-jie   

  1. (College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)
  • Online:2025-02-20 Published:2025-02-28

摘要: 基于1996~2020年长江中下游地区124个水稻生产县的县级单产、气象和社会经济数据,结合早稻、中稻和晚稻的农作物生育期,运用双向固定效应模型研究关键气候因子变化对长江中下游地区水稻单产的影响。研究发现:(1)该区域有效积温增加对三种类型水稻单产均具有显著正向影响,危害热积温对水稻无显著影响,日照时长与早稻单产呈“倒U型”非线性关系,降水与中稻和晚稻单产呈“倒U型”非线性关系。(2)分阶段研究发现,中稻营养生长和生殖生长并进阶段、晚稻营养生长阶段危害热积温增加对单产有显著负向影响,长差分检验揭示中稻和晚稻生产系统对上述两阶段危害热积温变化产生了适应。(3)模拟移栽期调整,结合安全移栽期限制,发现长江中下游地区早-晚稻移栽提前至4月8日最有利于水稻生产。研究为长江中下游地区不同类型水稻分生育期种植管理提供了实证支持。

Abstract: Meteorological and socio-economic data from 124 rice-producing counties in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1996 to 2020 were used in this study. A two-way fixed-effect model was adopted to investigate the impact of climate changes on rice yield in this region. The findings were as follows: (1) The increase of effective accumulated temperature had a significant positive impact on the yield of all three types of rice, while the accumulated hot damage temperature had no significant impact. There was an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between radiation duration and early rice yield, as well as a similar inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between precipitation and the yield of middle and late rice. (2) The analysis by growth stages found that the increase in harmful accumulated temperature during the concurrent vegetative and reproductive growth stages of middle rice and the vegetative growth stage of late rice had a significant negative impact on yield. The long difference test indicated that the production systems of middle and late rice had been adapted to the changes in accumulated hot damage temperature during these two stages. (3) By simulating the adjustment of transplanting dates and considering the constraints of the safe transplanting period, it was found that advancing the transplanting date of early and late rice to April 8th was most conducive to rice production. This study provided empirical support for the cultivation management of different types of rice in different growth stages in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

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