Abstract:  

Enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of urban agglomerations is a key task to realize high-quality development. Based on the panel data of 28 prefecture-level cities in the city cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2010 to 2021, this study comprehensively evaluated the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the comprehensive urban carrying capacity of the region by comprehensively applying the DPSIR framework and entropy-weighted TOPSIS methodology. Additionally, the obstacle factor model was used to diagnose the constraints. The study found that: (1) The overall comprehensive carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River showed an upward trend, although the growth rates varied; (2) In terms of spatial distribution, the comprehensive carrying capacity of the urban agglomeration had evolved from low-level imbalance to high-level imbalance, presenting a spatial differentiation pattern of "higher in center city"; (3) The driving force and response systems contributed significantly to the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities, while the pressure and state systems had a relatively small effect; (4) The obstacle factors affecting the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in the urban agglomeration included innovation capacity, infrastructure construction, education, and public cultural service levels. The results of this study provided a scientific basis and guidance for the formulation of sustainable development policies for the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and similar urban agglomerations.