长江流域资源与环境 >> 2025, Vol. 34 >> Issue (08): 1708-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202508006

• 自然资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于核主成分分析的长三角地区河网水系连通性评价模型研究

褚克坚1,2,3,杨煊2*,刘朗4,秦硕2,叶福竹2   

  1. (1.河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室, 江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学环境学院, 江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院, 江苏 南京 210098;4.句容市水利农机局, 江苏 句容 212400)
  • 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-09-01

Assessment Framework of River Connectivity Using KPCA Method in the Watershed of Yangtze River Delta

CHU Ke-jian1,2,3,YANG Xuan2,LIU Lang4,QIN Shuo2,YE Fu-zhu2   

  1. (1.Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lakes, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
    3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
    4.Water Conservancy and Agricultural Machinery Bureau of Jurong,Jurong 212400,China)
  • Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-09-01

摘要: 我国长江三角洲地区水网密集,河道纵横、湖荡棋布,水系连通性作为区域河湖物流、能流交互能力的关键表征,对其状况的科学评估,是构建长三角流域水生态安全格局的重要环节。针对长三角地区河网水系连通性指标之间的强非线性关联本质,引入核主成分分析(KPCA)方法,构建河网水系连通性评价模式,以实现对非线性结构数据的有效降维与解析;在此基础上,结合涵盖物理结构、发育特征、分形拓扑3个方面,共12项指标的河网水系连通性评价指标体系,构建了基于KPCA的长三角地区河网水系连通性评价模型。选择区域典型河网—句容河北支流域水系为案例进行实证研究,探查1960~2016年不同时期的水系连通性状况,结果表明,1970年以来,句容河北支流域水系连通性相对1960年近天然情形的变异度呈现持续上升情势,到2000年到达顶峰,而2016年则有所恢复,评价结果客观反映了该流域水系结构的演变过程;通过敏感性分析识别出驱动该流域水系连通性变化的关键因子为:水面率、河网复杂度、河网密度与湖、库、塘面积,发现了支流河道的损失是该流域水系连通性退化的重要发生机制。

Abstract: River connectivity characterizes material and energy liquidities in the aquatic ecosystem of Yangtze River Delta. The assessment of river connectivity serves as the critical prerequisite for constructing ecological security pattern. In this study, a river connectivity indicator system of Yangtze River Delta was established, which consisted of 12 indicators covering three categories of physical structure, development feature and fractal topology. The kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) was introduced to interpret the nonlinear relationships among the individual connectivity indicators, and to reduce the feature dimensionality of the indicator space. An innovative river connectivity assessment framework was built on the basis of the KPCA method. The proposed assessment framework was applied to evaluate the river connectivity of the North branch basin of Jurong River, a typical small watershed in the Yangtze River Delta. The evolution feature was explored in the past five decades. The results indicated that since 1970, the deviation degree of river connectivity from the near-natural situation (1960) had kept rising to the peak in 2000 and then decreased in 2016. Four key drivers affecting the connectivity of the basin were identified as the water coverage rate, river network complexity, river network density and lacustrine surface area. The loss of tributaries could be the important occurrence mechanism on the degradation of connectivity in the North branch basin of Jurong River.

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