长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (1): 202-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202601016

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

金沙江流域极端降水和人类活动对输沙量变化的影响

康子晗,莫淑红*,许才琳,彭红兰,姜宇博   

  1. (西安理工大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,陕西 西安 710048)
  • 出版日期:2026-01-20 发布日期:2026-01-20

Impact of Extreme Precipitation and Human Activities on Sediment Discharge in the Jinsha River Basin

KANG Zi-han, MO Shu-hong, XU Cai-lin, PENG Hong-lan, JIANG Yu-bo   

  1. (State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area,Xi ′an University of Technology, Xi ′an 710048, China)
  • Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-01-20

摘要: 为了明晰极端降水和人类活动对金沙江流域输沙量的影响,收集流域1974~2018年及其周边27个气象站的日降水数据,使用RClimDex模型选取计算了7个极端降水指数,并揭示了各极端降水指数的时空演化规律,采用双累积曲线法与随机森林模型定量解析了极端降水对输沙量变化的贡献率。结论如下:(1) 时间变化方面,各极端降水指数除连续有雨日数CWD外其余指数均表现为上升趋势,流域较强降水事件的持续时间逐渐延长、降水量显著增加、降水强度明显增强;空间分布上,流域东南部是较强降水主要分布区域,从东南部向西北部降水量与降水强度逐渐下降,而流域中部降水持续时间最长。(2)流域年输沙量在2002、2013年发生突变,双累积曲线法说明2003~2013年间,连续有雨日数CWD对输沙量减少的影响程度最大,贡献率为3.8%,2014~2018年则是强降水量指标R95P的贡献率最大,为4.1%;随机森林模型揭示了流域整个时期内各极端降水指数对输沙量减少的影响均小于5%。(3)通过流域1980~2018年间土地利用类型变化和附近水库拦沙情况进一步分析人类活动对输沙量的影响。在21世纪以来流域内人类活动更加剧烈,大量未利用土地转化为草地。对石鼓-屏山站区间1974~2013年间进行蓄水的大型水电站进行拦沙率计算,拦沙率皆在60 %以上,即水库拦沙作用明显,导致输沙量显著减小。综上,人类活动是导致流域输沙量减小的主要因素,流域极端降水对输沙量变化影响程度较小,且不同降水指数的贡献不同。

Abstract: In order to clarify the impact of extreme precipitation and human activities on sediment transport in the Jinsha River Basin,  daily precipitation data from 1974 to 2018 at 27 meteorological stations in the basin and its surrounding areas were collected. Seven extreme precipitation indices were selected and calculated using RClimDex model. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of each extreme precipitation index were analyzed. The double accumulation curve method and random forest model were used to quantitatively calculate the contribution of extreme precipitation to the reduction of sediment transport. The conclusions were as follows: (1) All the extreme precipitation indices showed an upward trend except CWD. The duration of the heavy precipitation events gradually extended, and the precipitation intensity increased significantly. The southeast of the basin was the main area of heavy precipitation. The precipitation intensity gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest, while the precipitation duration was the longest in the middle of the basin. (2) Abrupt changes occurred in the annual sediment transport in 2002 and 2013. The double accumulation curve method showed that CWD, the number of consecutive rainy days, had the greatest impact on the reduction of sediment transport during 2003-2013, with a rate of 3.8%. The heavy precipitation index (R95P), had the greatest contribution rate during 2014-2018, with a rate of 4.1%; The random forest model revealed that the influence of extreme precipitation index on sediment transport reduction was less than 10%. (3) The effects of human activities on sediment transport were further analyzed through the changes of land use types in the basin and sediment containment of nearby reservoirs during 1980-2018. Since the 21st century, human activities in the basin had become more intense, and a large amount of unused land had been transformed into grassland. The sediment retention rate of large hydropower stations in Shigu - Pingshan Station during 1974-2013 was calculated, and the sediment retention rate was all above 60%, i.e., the sediment retention effect of the reservoir was obvious.  In summary, human activities were the main factors leading to the decrease of sediment transport in the basin. The extreme precipitation had little influence on the change of sediment transport in the basin. The contribution of different precipitation indexes was different from each other.

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