长江流域资源与环境 >> 2026, Vol. 35 >> Issue (2): 303-.doi: 10.11870/cjlyzyyhj202602003

• 区域可持续发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

长三角地区新型城镇化与城市韧性协调发展及驱动因素研究

彭坤杰1,张萌2,石彩霞2,贺小荣2*   

  1. (1.合肥大学文化与旅游学院,安徽 合肥 230601;2.湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南 长沙 410081)
  • 出版日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-02-26

Research on Coordinated Development and Driving Factors of New Urbanization and Urban Resilience in Yangtze River Delta

PENG Kun-jie1, ZHANG Meng2, SHI Cai-xia2, HE Xiao-rong2   

  1. (1. School of Culture and Tourism, Hefei University, Hefei 230601, China; 2. College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China)
  • Online:2026-02-20 Published:2026-02-26

摘要: 立足人地关系视角,通过构建新型城镇化与城市韧性理论分析框架,运用改进熵值法、耦合协调度模型、反距离权重插值法、地理探测器模型和XGBoost-SHAP机器学习模型系统而全面的从市域尺度层面探索了长三角地区新型城镇化与城市韧性协调发展的时空演化特征及驱动交互因素。研究发现:从时序演变看,两系统的总体协调发展水平在不断提升,江浙沪地区始终位于发展头部地区,安徽仍然有较大提升潜力;从空间特征看,整体耦合协调度数值呈显著的上升趋势,协调发展水平呈现西北低、东南高的空间分异格局;从驱动因素看,城镇居民人均可支配收入等4项驱动因子是影响耦合协调度数值的关键因素,且各因素间存在交互效应。研究结论为探索长三角地区新型城镇化与城市韧性协调发展的调控优化路径提供了理论参考及实证分析。

Abstract: Based on the perspective of human-land relationship, this study developed a theoretical analytical framework for new urbanization and urban resilience. The methodologies used included the improved entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree model, inverse distance weighting method, geo-detector model, and XGBoost-SHAP machine learning model. A systematic and comprehensive investigation into the spatio-temporal evolution patterns was conducted and the driving interaction factors of the coordinated development between new urbanization and urban resilience were explored in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) at the municipal scale. The findings revealed that: from the temporal evolution, the overall level of coordinated development between the two systems had been steadily increasing, with the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region consistently leading in development, while Anhui Province demonstrates substantial potential for further advancement; From the spatial characteristics, the overall coupling coordination degree values exhibited a marked increasing trend, revealing a distinct spatial differentiation pattern characterized by lower levels in the northwest and higher levels in the southeast; Four factors were identified as the key ones that affected the value of the coupling coordination degree, which included disposable income per capita of urban residents. There existed an interaction effect among the factors. The conclusions provided theoretical reference and empirical analysis for exploring the regulatory optimization path of coordinated development of new urbanization and urban resilience in the YRD.

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