数值预报产品在长江干流段面雨量概率预报中的释用

长江流域资源与环境 >> 2006, Vol. 15 >> Issue (4): 537-540.

数值预报产品在长江干流段面雨量概率预报中的释用

付晓辉1,2，肖稳安3，龙利民2，熊传辉2

收稿日期:2005-09-09 修回日期:2005-09-23 出版日期:2006-07-20
通讯作者: 付晓辉

A NWPS′ APPLICATION FOR AREARAINFALL PROBABILITY PREDICTION FOR THE MAIN VALLEY OF YANGTZE RIVER

FU Xiao-hui1,2，XIAO Wen-an3，LONG Li-min2，XIONG Chuan-hui2

Received:2005-09-09 Revised:2005-09-23 Online:2006-07-20
Contact: FU Xiao-hui

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用2003年6～8月国家气象中心T213L31、武汉暴雨所MAPS数值预报产品，读取一定经纬度范围内的格点资料进行处理，得到最初因子。应用统计软件对最初因子与面雨量实况值进行聚类分析，并依据最优化的原则，将因子分为若干“段”，面雨量实况值（R）分为4个等级：无雨、0＜R≤5 mm、5 mm＜R＜15 mm和R≥15 mm。针对不同的等级，分别求出因子各“段”的降水频率作为X样本序列；相应地，R取“0”或“1”形成Y样本序列，用多元线性回归统计方法建立长江干流段面雨量概率预报方程。

关键词: 面雨量, 概率预报, 数值预报产品

Abstract: With the help of NWPsT213L31 and MAPS, the initial factors are obtained after dealing with data of grid points at certain range. By applying cluster analysis method and according to optimum disposal strategy , factors are divided into several “segments” respectively and real values of area rainfall (R) are divided into four extents: R=0 mm, 0 mm

Key words: area rainfall, probability prediction, NWP

付晓辉,肖稳安,龙利民,熊传辉. 数值预报产品在长江干流段面雨量概率预报中的释用[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2006, 15(4): 537-540.

FU Xiao-hui,XIAO Wen-an,LONG Li-min,XIONG Chuan-hui. A NWPS′ APPLICATION FOR AREARAINFALL PROBABILITY PREDICTION FOR THE MAIN VALLEY OF YANGTZE RIVER[J]. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT IN THE YANGTZE BASIN, 2006, 15(4): 537-540.

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