Abstract:

Based on land use datum of 1993 and 2004,and a digital elevation 〖JP2〗model with a scale of 1〖DK〗∶250000,〖JP〗the key driving factors to the main spatial distribution and change of land use type in Qiandao lake town were selected for the different periods from biophysical and socioeconomic factors such as terrain,elevation roads,water system,urban and rural residential areas by technology of GIS.Then the probability maps for each land use type were created by using Logistic stepwise regression,of which the goodness of fit is evaluated for all equations with the ROC(Relative Operating Charcteristics)method.In this study,CLUES model which has the capability of modeling changes in quantity and location simultaneously,was applied to simulate temporal and spatial changes in land use from 1993 to 2004.CLUES’s simulation results were compared with maps of the actual distribution of land use in 2004 for validation.The results indicated that CLUES was capable of classifying correctly 8471% of the grid cells and Kappa index reached to 0825 in the simulation at the basic grid level (90 m×90 m),indicating a successful simulation.For a better understanding of the future land use changes in Qiandao lake town,the same model was furthe applied to predict spatial distribution of land use change in 2015 for two scenarios associating with current governmental policy.Comparing two status land use maps of Year 2015 and 2004,the obvious change is the expansion of land for urban areas and mining and the reduction of forest land,meanwhile,the expansion of land for urban areas and mining is usually based on the original land for urban areas and mining,which invaded some forest land,cultivated land and idle land.